But survivorship bias means we assume all successful people hold a unique skill and wisdom that, if we only did the same, we'd find similar success.
But survivorship bias means we assume all successful people hold a unique skill and wisdom that, if we only did the same, we'd find similar success.
I don't think anyone likes to admit that very few things in life are actually within our control, which makes it desirable to ascribe success to hard work, or intelligence, or whatever.
I started a consultancy that failed, was part of a small team with a moderately successful product, and now am part of a small team with a much more successful product.
All of that happened while former colleagues were working on much more successful products making a lot more money than I was.
In none of those cases was the outcome related to hard work, skill, or desire.
Sometimes you have the right people together in the right place at the right time. Sometimes you don't.
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None of which is to say that luck is the _only_ factor. Part of taking advantage of the luck is doing the best work you can, and honing your skills to the best of your ability, so that if the opportunity pops up you can grab it.
But just because you haven't had the success you've wanted doesn't mean there's anything wrong with you at all.
Getting anything else requires opportunity. Even discovering where your talents lie takes resources.
And there's also genetic luck, not necessarily biological but also wealth and environment. Without that many talents are unknown or undeveloped. This kind of luck cannot be made.
Nobody can actually find people with undeveloped talents. You'd have to force them to try a wide variety of occupations, preferably early so that they can develop it.
The people we value are not just any talented, they're developed talents that have been noticed, and beyond that lucky geniuses.