Hacker News Reader

I have been confused about this 2-3% figure since they started using it... I mean they are not factoring in the lag-time.

It seems like they just are taking all the new patients, and not calculating it correctly. I expect this number to grow.

View on HN

This NIH representative assessed the fatality rate at more like 1% in an interview to PBS a few days ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6-De7IAS1I

There are multiple forces at play. On the one hand, as you note, it takes time for people to die, which could initially bias the fatality rate downward. On the other hand, a lot of milder cases will be missed entirely, which would bias the rate upward. My understanding is that the latter factor is considered more significant in the early stages of an epidemic like this.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com