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Comment by m0zg | Hacker News Reader

When I last priced out a solar panel install on my house a few years ago the cost came to something like $20K, and the capacity was quite modest - only the most favorable slope of the roof. There simply was no way for me to recoup the investment, ever, even ignoring maintenance costs (those panels need to be cleaned from time to time). It's probably lower now, though I wonder if the cost differential is significant - much of this cost is labor and margin.

I wonder if this was communicated to those responding to the poll. In SV and SF $20K might not seem like much, but not all of CA is that well off.

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Your investment is recouped in 8-13 years (depending on state; the more expensive your power, the faster the system cost is recouped), after that the system produces power "for free" [1] [2] and the components (panels, inverter) are warrantied for 25 years. Panel cleaning is spraying the panels with a hose.

The best time to get solar is when a house is built, or a roof is replaced, especially if you can combine the install with a financing event that's going to let you finance the system for 20-30 years with low interest rates. Not only is there a 26% federal tax credit for solar, but many states offer generous incentives/rebates as well. Capture them!

It's fiscally a no brainer. $20k over 30 years at 4% is $95/month. Mortgage rates will only continue to go down (and are already below 4%) due to macro issues, and residential solar install costs also will drop as the scale ramps. These mandates drive down costs, in the same way EV credits helped Tesla reach scale to offer the Model 3 at an affordable price.

Disclaimer: I review system quotes and advise on solar installs for friends, family, and internet strangers, but am not a solar professional (yet; if you're a utility scale developer in need of any role [system design, project management, finance], I'd be interested!).

[1] https://www.solarpowerrocks.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/s... (updated 10/23/2018)

[2] https://www.solarpowerrocks.com/

All of that depends on your power costs. My town has its own municipal power cooperative that buys very cheap hydrothermal electricity. Solar would never make sense for me, except as some kind of disaster-event alternative.

I mention that in my comment, and I agree that it doesn't make sense in locations that have sustainable renewable power (hydro in the PNW, geothermal such as that in Iceland) in place. It makes sense anywhere attempting to phase out fossil (coal, gas, shale) or older low carbon tech reaching the end of its useful life (nuclear).

For example, ComEd in Illinois is offering incentives on top of state and federal incentives for rooftop solar due to a state renewables mix mandate, and their fleet of commercial nuclear reactors are reaching the end of their service life (and aren't cost competitive with wind and solar in the state, even accounting for the need for battery storage to meet capacity requirements).

Electricity my state is 11 cents a KWh, and most of it already comes from hydro. Your calculation only holds if the owner plans to live 30 years in the same house, which I do not. You also ignore the maintenance cost. Every spring everything in my area is covered with a layer of yellow pollen. There's also snow sometimes, and general lack of sun for 6 months in any given year.

There was actually a humorous episode when a guy from a solar installer came to our office to advertise how much economic sense their solar panels make. He gave all the exciting numbers and everything, and then someone asked him to show some numbers from an actual installation, at that particular time of day. So he brings up a web GUI for a 50KW commercial install, which at the moment was producing something like 2.5KW. Awkward.

Ultimately, though, that's not why I didn't go with solar. Our HOA doesn't allow it. I would actually welcome a law which would limit the HOA's say in such matters, or eliminate it entirely.

I'm not ignoring the maintenance cost, I'm saying it doesn't exist. I'm also saying the math works already in your state at your energy cost. If you want to argue, let's argue over facts.

I'm not sure what state you're in, but several states prohibit an HOA by law from preventing you from installing rooftop solar. You should check if your state has such legislation, and if not, champion it. I'll even do it for you if you don't want to spend the time (until I can get federal legislation passed).

>> I'm saying it doesn't exist

Top hit on Google: "Solar panels generally require very little maintenance. They are very durable and should last around 25-30 years with no maintenance. The only maintenance you should need to perform is to wash them clean of dirt and dust two to four times a year, which you can easily do with a garden hose."

Sounds expensive, if panels are installed on the roof. And you can't wash off pollen by just casually spraying it with a "garden hose".

HomeAdvisor quotes $100-350 a pop. As a homeowner I'd expect the actual cost to be closer to the upper end of the range. Tradesmen won't get out of bed in the morning for less than $200. To wash windows in my house from outside only is $300.

>Your investment is recouped in 5-7 years.

(Oops, then edited it to double that estimate)

>Your investment is recouped in 8-13 years.

So, right when you recoup your investment, the 10 year warranty runs out. Great.

Thanks for pointing out that I corrected my information, I prefer communicating accurate information. Panels and inverter have 25 year warranties. Storage is optional (the 10 year warranty you mention). If there are incentives for it, get it, but don't pay out of pocket entire yourself for the storage. Let state, local, and utility pockets pay for it.

https://news.energysage.com/shopping-solar-panels-pay-attent...

You're right. 4 on this list have 25 year warranties... but the rest.. ouch.

I have never seen panels quoted by reputable installers that weren't Panasonic, LG, or SunPower (quality panels with the 25 year warranty mentioned).

Was that from an installer? That's about what I was quoted, but if I do the legwork (building permits, hire installer and electrician), it's under $10k before incentives for a decent system (~4kwh).

I pay ~$50/month and that would offset most of my bill (net metering resets at year end, so I'm likely to pay most of Jan+Feb), so it should pay for itself in 10-15 years, probably closer to 10 since my numbers are very conservative (low estimate for electricity, high estimate for installation & parts, low electricity cost). Panels are under warranty for 20 years, and they immediately add value to my house, so it's a net win as soon as they are installed.

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