Climate change is drying up the Colorado River | Hacker News Reader

Climate change is drying up the Colorado River

arstechnica.com

17 pointslisper13 comments

Would be lovely if someone put together betting markets for these events so people could put some real, actual skin in the game. Would be even lovelier if the authors of papers had to disclose their own bets (if any) in the papers, similarly to how they disclose the funding sources today. That would be a good signal as to the level of confidence they have in their predictions. 2065 is not that far out, and the water levels won't drop all at once, so it should be possible to set up shorter term bets.

Climate events, if anything, should be far more predictable than the stock markets, while still retaining substantial randomness and uncertainty for the betting market to be possible.

The Colorado feeds a couple of hydroelectric dams you've probably heard of, so if you can either invest/divest in the power companies or in e.g. houseboats or yachts on the reservoirs, that would kind of give you an instrument to place your bet.

USGS researchers aren't exactly wallowing in cash.

If you want to see meaningful bets, look to the Pentagon and insurance industries. They seem to have made a decision on climate change.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-18/in-dire-r...

https://www.wsj.com/graphics/climate-change-forcing-insuranc...

That's OK, I'd monitor JP Morgan's bets now that they are onboard. I just want there to be real, direct cost (positive or negative) be attached to the probability that the prediction is accurate. That would be vastly preferable to the current situation where there's no downside for the researcher for predicting incorrectly, and no upside to predicting correctly.

In fact, given the purported seriousness of the situation, this should be structured such that "USGS researchers" who are correct most of the time would be "wallowing in cash", and those who are not would be ejected from the field.

How much is from climate change and how much from agriculture and cities sucking it dry? These guys did a documentary of their journey down the entire length of the river to see where the water was going.

https://vimeo.com/60269562

Climate Emergencies 1966 - Oil gone in 10 years 1967 - Dire famine forecast by 1975 1968 - Overpopulation will spread worldwide 1969 - Everyone will disappear in a Cloud of Blue Steam in 1989 1970 - World will use up its natural resources by 2000 1970 - Urban citizens will require gas mask by 1985 1970 - Nitrogen buildup will make all lands unusable 1970 - Decaying pollution will kill all the fish 1970s - Killer Bees!!! 1970 - Ice Age by 2000 1970 - Americans will be subjected to water rationing by 1975 and food rationing by 1980 1971 - New Ice Age coming by 2020 or 2030 1972 - New Ice Age by 2070 1972 - Oil depleted in 20 years 1974 - Space satellites show New Ice Age coming fast 1974 - Another Ice Age? 1974 - Ozone depletion a great peril to life 1976 - Scientific consensus planet cooling; famines imminent 1977 - Department of Energy says oil will peak in 90s. 1978 - No end in sight to 30-year global cooling 1980 - Acid rain kills life in lakes 1980 - Peak oil in 2000 1988 - Regional drought (that never happened) in 90s. 1988 - Temperatures in DC will hit record high (no records broken) 1988 - Maldive Islands will be underwater by 2018 (nope) 1989 - Rising sea level will obliterate nations if nothing done by 2000. 1989 - New York City Westside Highway underwater by 2018. 1996 - Peak oil in 2020 2000 - Children won’t know what snow is 2002 - Famines if we don’t give up eating fishes, meat, and diary 2002 - Peak oil in 2010 2004 - Britain will be Siberia by 2024 2005 - Manhattan underwater by 2015 2006 - Super Hurricanes!!! 2008 - Arctic will be ice-free by 2018 2008 - Climate genius Al Gore predict ice-free Arctic by 2013 2009 - Climate genius Prince Charles says we have 96 months to save the world 2009 UK Prime Ministers says 50 days to “save planet from catastrophe” 2009 Al Gore moves ice-free Arctic prediction from 2013 to 2014 2013 Arctic ice-free by 2015 2014 Only 500 days before climate chaos 2019 - Hey Greta, we really need you to convince them this time. 2020 - Australian bush fires are caused by climate change. It’s just a ploy for government to add more taxes.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/12/even-50-year-old-cli...

How long ago did this start?

> Less snow means more evaporation in a critical water resource

What?

Evaporation is constant.

This is a play on words to sway readers. Stop this.

https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/snow/climate.html

> Snow's cold, moist surface influences how much heat and moisture circulate between the ground and the atmosphere. Snow helps insulate the ground below, holding in heat and preventing moisture from evaporating into the atmosphere.

From the article:

>Less snow means more dark ground is exposed and absorbing heat, instead of being covered in white stuff that reflects light. The warmer ground means higher rates of evaporation and, thus, less water in the river.

Why do you say evaporation is constant?

There are many constants in the Universe, but evaporation isn't one of them

Evaporation is definitely not constant, at all, not remotely. More heat means more evaporation, and less snow means more heat and therefore a shorter journey (on average) back to the gas phase. Aside from climate, it's the principle that underlies mundane things like hair dryers, clothes dryers, and sauce reductions.

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