Most of the problem is health systems cant scale for 2x flu in a short time.. But the world has a bit of time for prep since its mostly a chinese problem at the moment..
The rest of it is mostly economic fallout from secondary effects like travel restrictions and large scale quarantines(like the chinese have done). Unless you're in the travel and hospitality industry..theres probably little impact at the moment?
Why are you stressed?
Let's just talk about economic impacts.
Supply side:
- a substantial portion of goods sold at retail in the US have some part of their supply chain in China. This includes goods made in China as well as those made in the US with some inputs from China.
- a substantial number of people are employed in industries which sell retail goods that have a supply-chain dependency on China
- a substantial number of people are employed in the US logistics industries (shipping, trucking, warehousing, etc)
- China's economic output has been affected to the degree that their CO2 emissions are down 25% yoy [1]
- Maersk, the world's largest shipping company, has been cancelling sailings due to the shutdowns in China [2]
- firms will begin laying off employees in the above positions as the supply shock continues
Demand side:
- travel, hospitality, events, etc industries impacted
- a disease epidemic can cause a severe drop in consumer spending. China car purchases are down 92% [3]. Consider also the impact on restaurants, sports, entertainment, child care, etc. Some portion of this change in behavior will be "long term" from the perspective of the business cycle (ie: delaying major purchases into the following year, etc)
- firms will begin laying off employees in the above positions as the demand shock continues
Finally:
- consider that sustained, simultaneous supply and demand shocks may be hitting the world's economies in waves until this disease is mitigated
[1] https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-has-tempora...
[2] https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/20/business/maersk-earnings-coro...
[3] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/21/china-car-s...
Hubei has like 60 million people. Maybe 70k cases of covid-19.
This is almost certainly not the case.
From the MRC Centre, Imperial College, London:
"the team estimate only about 1 in 19 people infected with COVID-19 in Wuhan are being tested for infection and therefore being reported as confirmed cases."
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/195217/coronavirus-fatality-...
fwiw, I grew up when the HIV epidemic went through the news cycle in the 80ies. And the news were similar in tone but exposure to news was limited (no Internet, no phones). So I often wonder what would happen if something like HIV comes around today in the age of the Internet. It would be mayhem I'm sure.
There is also a lot of disinfo around covid-19 popping up: https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1228525855208427521
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-e...
Look at US coronavirus deaths. Do the math. Sleep easy.
If not in the US, substitute $YOURCOUNTRY. Do the math. Sleep easy.
The one thing that should be obvious at this point is that developing countries are not reporting their real numbers.
China didn't report until international cases arose. Same with Iran. if you look at the map of infected countries, there are several that mysteriously are between infected countries and somehow have zero cases.
You cant do math when you have bad data.
From what we know so far, many have very mild cases, some have severe to very severe. Some die from disease directly (e.g. loss of ling function due to a viral pneumonia), others from follow on complications (e.g. septic shock, secondary bacterial infection).
Based on published data it appears to kill about 1 in 500 of those under 50, assume 80% of cases are mild and that becomes in in 2,000; assume 95% of cases are mild (e.g. another cold or flu) for those under 50 and that's 1 in 10,000. So you risk if you are under 50 is likely somewhere between 1 in 2,000 and 1 in 10,000.
Above 50 those odds get worse up rapidly, more so if you are a smoker or live in an area with bad air pollution.
If you take basic precautions as you would for flu--wash your hands properly, etc.--your odds are even better.
Better to worry about what matters: Quit smoking, use your seat belts, eat healthier, etc.
- We don’t have good data on the true morbidity rate.
- The actions China is taking seem very extreme and they have the most experience with it.
- Isolated quarantine of infected patients seems like the only way to prevent its spread and this is hard to do given our 2020 way of life.
- Did I mention we don’t have good data? But the reports of longer than 14 day incubation periods, re-infection, and asymptomatic spread are worrying.
- The US health system seems quite unprepared. We have ~100,000 ICU beds total.
- Not to mention the economic impact. So, so many goods made in China and SE Asia, and in fact, in the least developed countries whose health systems are worst.
- Vaccine or a kind mutation seem like the best hope to me, and these are very uncertain.