But for early startups that's basically an unlikely outcome.
Early founders & execs handle this by a combination of a) large initial stake to survive dilution and b) the ability to cut a deal eventually to counteract impact of liquidity preference etc. ... but you can only extend that to so many people.
I don't think it's insane to structure things in such a way that you are basically saying if anyone makes money off this, these people do in proportion to their relatively small stake.
I suppose the real problems here are that 1) early round investors don't get this protection (but I think they can just accept that) and 2) at some point you get a different class of employee equity which could be hard to judge.
I was just musing, haven't thought about it deeply.
I suspect we agree on the real solution, which is work out your business plan so that you can pay real market rates (and give them a chance to participate in early rounds)
The rest of the protections VC gets for their shares are simply a result of market power. They have it; employees won't organize and don't.
Do you mean by this that they attache a low value to the early stage equity they are given, or that they should push for a bigger part of the cap table early?
The former I think is really hard to support. After all, it's a common trope (for good reason) that people accept salaries well below market value at a startup on the basis of being convinced to over value the equity they are being offered.
I don't think we are far apart on this actually, I agree you have to do this sort of evaluation, and that it is fundamentally imperfect. I'm not sure ton how many employees do this or don't, I've know many who do. Many of them fail on the risk-weighting part, and more of them have overvalued their state, ime, than under.
If you are really early stage, I also think along with a clear and vetted idea of the numbers the company is going to need to hit is a plan on what to do when that doesn't occur. The more time goes by, the more information you have, the more accurate your EV estimates should be. If they are dropping sharply there is nothing wrong with going back to management and saying this isn't making sense anymore to me, we need to reconsider my comp.