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It's interesting that in your other comment you referenced another paper for a higher IFR although in this reference the model suggested 0.07%. So what do you believe? A higher total infection with a much lower IFR, or a higher IFR? Or you just pick papers that support your viewpoint for the sake of argument?

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> Or you just pick papers that support your viewpoint for the sake of argument?

This. (Actually I believe both numbers are optimistically correct: 1 million infected and 50k death, but I also realize that's crazy talk and panic time. If that is what is really happening in Hubei I would quarantine 10% of the world's population).

I don't think CCP can cover 50k death with ease. Unlike many western people assumed, CCP is not omnipotent in China. There are checks and balances of power. Not distributed democratically, but still distributed in some opaque ways. 50k death can lead to some pretty serious power dynamics change if true.

Btw it's not too far off that right now 10% of world's population is more or less under some level of quarantine.

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