You get something like .4% for the 30-40 age range. This was a crude estimate... but that's why I say ballpark. It also could go up/down as we get more data.
I agree the risk here is considerably high. People just don't understand scale well. Assuming the R0 is high, it could eventually sweep through the majority of the population. IIRC, the 1918 flu pandemic is estimated to have infected 80% of the population. So in the US alone that's 6,000,000 deaths, or one Sept 11. like attack every day for 200 days.
For a reasonably accurate estimate you need to look at percentage of total infections detected, and the lag between detection and death. Using say 50% detection rate and 7 days between detection and death you get 2119 / (63,851 / 0.5) = 1.7% fatality rate. That’s about as optimistic as I think is reasonable.
PS: A 50% detection rate may be high or low, but that’s the real unknown.
Will mortality rate come down? Very likely. But it may not... And if not, what is the outcome at scale?
E.g. dropping sperm counts in men. Is that dropping in all men? Or is it a side effect of rising obesity in enough men to dent the average?
Is the mortality 1/500 here because a good health 30 year old has a 1/500 chance of dying? Or because the 1/100 30 year olds with poor health have a 1/5 chance of dying?