Comment by allovernow | Hacker News Reader

Comment by allovernow | Hacker News Reader

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Those numbers are likely at least an order of magnitude underreported. They mirror the figures out of China, and there are a number of issues:

1. They follow a quadratic distribution over time with a regression coefficient of >.99. that's now how epidemics spread

2. China ran out of testing kits weeks ago.

3. Half of the population is on lockdown, and according to Chinese reports, even those who are sick and need to go to the hospital are not allowed to travel. So cases are not being counted

4. Even if they were able to do so, hospitals have been overwhelmed for weeks and have been turning cases away

In addition to other reasons, the authoritarian CCP has shown a willingness to punish anyone who speaks toward how severe this infection actually is and their numbers absolutely cannot be trusted. Just look at the unprecedented response - 700 million people, 10% of the world's population, is under lockdown.

Can't speak to 2-4, but on 1., there seems to be research suggesting early epidemic growth can actually be quadratic: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27266847

Specifically, it notes that "Sub-exponential growth profiles may result from heterogeneity in contact structures or risk groups, reactive behavior changes, or the early onset of interventions strategies, and consideration of "deceleration parameters" may be useful to refine existing mathematical transmission models and improve disease forecasts."

Not sure if there are more striking examples of "reactionary behavior change" than a massive lockdown.

The problem is really the regression coefficient rather than the fact that it's quadratic. Nothing is that clean in real life.

A quadractic is also a second order approximation. On a short enough time scale it will fit any smooth function well.

For 2, China has been reporting clinically diagnosed for a few days now. (as mentioned in another comment above, source: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...).

Even clinical diagnosis is unreliable. It's based on indicators like fever and pathologic lung scans. Bear in mind this is in combination with strong top down pressure to underreport.

The natural and societal circumstances surrounding this epidemic feel like a perfect storm.

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