We have the same situation as a startup focused on developing a product. We have abidance of developers, and very few infrastructure engineers. When we start deploying what we have built, we are going to have a bad time.
We have the same situation as a startup focused on developing a product. We have abidance of developers, and very few infrastructure engineers. When we start deploying what we have built, we are going to have a bad time.
This site shows active construction in new york: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/buildings/html/nyc-active-major-...
You need to compare it to population growth, decades of building backlog, job growth, etc.
I was just pointing out the the linked post shows how NYC construction is stagnant, not "active". It was unclear if he meant "active" as in "they're building a large quantity" or as in "currently happening".
Foreign money or no, if you have a very desirable city with a growing job market and stagnant construction, prices will appreciate. I would challenge you to find a single counterexample
Foreign money doesn't help prices but it's more a symptom of our problems than a cause.
Also, NYC population is not declining. I wish. There have been some stagnant years but nowhere near enough to compensate for 50 years of underbuilding.
"Despite a weak outlook for residential real estate, the number of building permits issued in New York City for new homes surged last year to the highest pace since 2015. It was the second-highest total since the end of the last big building boom in 2008. Permits for 26,547 units of housing were issued in 2019, about 27% more than the year before ..."
So this is not even 0,5% of overall units.
That's because only megaprojects can afford to overcome all the regulatory and neighborhood hurdles.
Do you think the average homeowner trying to become a landlord by converting their home into a duplex has enough money to pay for both sides of a law suit, as this developer had to?
https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2019/07/toronto-c...
Toronto prices are crazy, so Toronto isn't building enough, let alone the major coastal American cities.
Housing _is_ infrastructure, and it's the piece of infrastructure we're most sorely missing.
Even in SF, there's some places where public transportation is faster. But in very very limited situations because SF transportation is horrible. But an express Caltrain is often much faster than driving MTV-SF if there's any traffic. With all the (super delayed unfortunately) infrastructure projects going on (new SF subway being installed, Caltrain electrification), things will hopefully get better...
It is very true but the point of adding capacity (to any form of transit) isn't to reduce congestion at peak hours (that congestion is bounded by what people will tolerate) it's to allow more trips to happen with equivalent congestion thereby increasing the total number of trips and/or decreasing the duration of the congestion.
Of course adding enough lanes to meet demand is not worth the cost. However the induced demand argument is wrong, it is a cost benefit calculation: will the additional people who are able to get someplace be worth the cost to add the lane.
Transit does have the same problem, but transit can scale much better in a given amount of space. A bus every 5 minutes can handle more traffic than a lane filled with cars - assuming the bus doesn't compete with the cars. You can run a bus every 3 minutes, and if that isn't enough a train every 45 seconds holding 5 times as many people as the bus. If that isn't enough - okay, it is time to build another track for the train, but that is a huge number of people (ie a good number would find their life improved by a track on a slightly different route that)
Mind: shared rights-of-way modes (busses, streetcars, LRT) can be impacted by private ve traffic, but contributes little to that itself.
Fixed-track systems (Muni Metro) can have coordination delays if multiple routes join.
Out of curiosity, do you ride Bart at commute hours? At 5pm, the platforms at Embarcadero and Montgomery are dangerously packed. I didn’t think there is much excess capacity for commuting.
All other times? Absolutely yes.
As I said, pointing out that transit systems are at capacity is not a valid reason to block development. Transit systems always try to operate at capacity because excess capacity means suboptimal allocation of resources. There's no reason to increase capacity until there's demand for that capacity.
The way the people profit is you put homes in the places that have lots of jobs, mostly so that people can just walk around but also to benefit from people filling up the reverse direction on BART. In places that have mostly homes you buld jobs instead. For places without an abundance of either, such as Orinda and Lafayette, you build both.
It's total nonsense that we build a railroad to a place like Lafayette, but that city has had the same population for 50 years. This goes triple for Berkeley, which has THREE subway stations and the same population it had in 1950! We should expect that adding billions of dollars of infrastructure also adds lots of people.
BART could encourage commercial development, instead of residential development, on land it owns near transit stations.
I'm not, let me explain.
> More commuters creates more ticket revenue, which gives BART more resources to expand capacity. They're not going to expand capacity until there's more demand.
BART needs money to expand, and this money is not going to come from commuters. Why?
First, "expand capacity" can mean two things:
1) Buy and/or run more trains on existing tracks, serving existing stations.
2) Build more tracks and/or stations.
For 1), BART already operates at or nearly at maximum physical capacity at commute hours in the peak commute direction: there is not headroom in the Transbay tube to add more trains at rush hour, at least for trips between SF and the East Bay. BART could earn more revenue from more commuters that are not on the peak lines -- but building more housing in the suburbs will not provide this.
For 2), this money comes from the capital budget, not the operating budget. BART fares provide about 70% of the operating costs of BART. There is no profit, no money left over to go to pay for more tracks or stations. That money comes from voters who approve bonds or other sources of funding for this constructions. More commuters will not provide this either.
We need to expand BART, and we need development -- these two go hand in hand!
I'm wondering what your frame of reference is here. As someone who has lived in the Bay Area for most of my 30 years, and lived in Atlanta for a couple years recently, where they are actually building like crazy, the Bay Area seems to be at a total standstill.
This is the easy one to fix — when there is demand, they can just run more trains.
Much harder is the transbay commute at rush hours. There is almost no spare capacity, and it’s not clear how those extra thousands of people in Lafayette will make it in to SF every morning before we build a second transbay tube for Bart — and that’s at least a decade away.
I say this as someone who loves development: for the Bay Area to significantly increase its population, we need a ton more transit and we need to start building it now.
Or if the jobs were in the other direction like Walnut Creek, it would be a reverse commute.
But almost no one takes Caltrain at non-commute hours.
If you want a train/bus to be used by people who have a choice you must run not less than ever half hour for 16 hours a day. The more often you run the more people who will ride, up to about 5 minutes where everybody knows you can just show up and get on. (unfortunately the amount of extra riders you get from coming more often isn't linear so you sometimes cannot justify coming more often by the amount of extra riders you get)
Note, there is a 2 year lag between changes in routes/schedules and riders figuring out the new routes. I think Caltrain could get a lot more non-commute hour riders by coming more often but if you push them to make sure you make everybody aware that it will be 2 years before there is a change.
Also, in this case, they have the infrastructure, the NIMBYs are just hoarding it to themselves, as they do in Berkeley as well.
What happens, in every city, is that more housing gets built, then the infrastructure system starts to get closer to capacity, and then the infrastructure gets upgaded.
Saying that they should upgrade all the infrastructure first, before there is any demand, is the same exact thing as saying that it should never be upgraded.
Because the infrastructure isn't going to be upgraded if there is no demand for it yet.
The above doesn't apply to the cities in CA we are talking about: there is plenty of demand. It does apply to some semi-rural small towns.
If a developer comes in and says "Hey I want to develop in this area", it is a contradictory response to say that this development should be prevented, because there is not enough demand.
If a bunch of developers are trying to build houses, then by definition, we are in a situation where there is demand.
This supports my point even more, because I was saying that the developers should build first, and then if the infrastructure starts to hit capacity, THEN the infrastructure should be updated.
Don't build the infrastructure first. Instead build the housing, and fix any problems that come with it.
Also, this is how all this infrastructure gets built in the first place, also. The developers, who are building the buildings, will upgrade the infrastructure as part of the process of building the buildings.
This is not how "capacity" works.
It is not that there is some constant limit to something, and everything is 100% fine as long as you are under capacity, but breaks entirely when you go over capacity.
Instead, capacity is flexible, and there are costs to it being flexible.
Instead, capacity is something that you start bumping up against, and this starts to cause problems. And the more that you bump up against capacity, the more problems that you get.
So, if you are only slightly over capacity, it means that, your roads will be a little bit congested some but not all of the time, or the town will have to purchase a little bit of energy from the town next over (or raise prices a little bit during certain times of the day to reduce demand), or a school will have a little bit more people attending it than previously intended, or you'll have to pay the police overtime hours more often.
And when these problems get big enough, THEN, people will decide that it makes sense to upgrade the network.
That solves your step wise function, that you are talking about. "Capacity" is actually pretty flexible. And you don't have to do some maximum upgrade, if you go over it. You can instead wait until you are over capacity enough that it makes sense to do the upgrade.
For drinking water you can do lawn watering bans to get capacity. For roads rush hour lasts longer. However there are still limits that you may not to run up against. If your traffic is already bad you might not be able to build more roads where they need to be (either you tear down something historic, or you have to build overpasses). If you are a small city you may have traffic problems while not having enough population to get your transit system in shape.
For example, for things like water, a city can increase the price of water, to reduce demand, especially for commercial usage.
> However there are still limits that you may not to run up against.
The limits are much further out than you'd think. And systems are often build with a large buffer, to handle spikes and increases anyway.
By the time you get close to hitting the true limit, you would have enough pent up demand that you can just spend the money to upgrade the system.
And the people who are building the new buildings, can also just find it as well.
This stuff happens all the time. Cities run up against limits all the time, and the world does not fall apart.
Instead, they implement stop cap measures, that work, and builders fund upgrading the system as they build new things.
Stuff is also often planned out for a long time.
It is also obviously far cheaper (and better for the environment) to water a single building than to water a bunch of dispersed SFHs.
Source: schedule fees for various bay area cities on new construction.