Ten Predictions for 2030
scottlocklin.wordpress.com
scottlocklin.wordpress.com
Here are my ten optimistic positions:
1. Computing and tech: Manycore systems become standard, even cellphones have hundreds of cores. Many fundamental algorithms have been developed to make use of these cores. Of course this makes these CPUs much faster then their 10yrs old counterparts. Of course, the single core performance remains the same as 20yrs ago.
2. Autonomous vehicles: It is done already today, and it will be done even more in 10yrs. We won't have the general AI and thus the problem of autonomous driving remains formally unsolved but practically solved for 99.99% of the time (that's not very good for any standards, but people don't care). Of course, this has enormous effects on "drivers" loosing their jobs or doing supervision/operating of a whole fleet from remote instead.
3. AI apocalypse: There will be a whole industry doing profitable ML and "AI".
4. Data science: don't underestimate public-money funded science. Universities won't decline at all. And progress is slow, but coming (Google for "big science, little science" if you wonder about these systematic concerns)
5. Privacy: Well, yes, we all know where this ends. There will be much more totalitarian states in 10yrs. No hope for optimism.
6. Quantum Computing: Major breakthroughs will happen. We can do 54 Qubits now, we will be able to do 1000 Qubits then, definitely. Don't underestimate the power of exp(t). :-)
7. Transportation/Energy: electric cars will be common all over the world. Atomic energy will still be a thing, thought.
8. Engineering: we will see at least one revolution similarly to 3d printing nowadays.
9. Agriculture: Veganism will much more become a thing and mass culture of animals will decline. I believe in the good things...
10. Science: Gravitational waves will allow us a much deeper understanding of the universe. Computing power boosts predictions in theoretical life sciences even more. Cancer will probably be cured. Amazing medicine will be developed. Many more people will have a degree, having studied will become as common as being able to read is nowadays.