Novel Coronavirus: Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Est [pdf]

> Results show that if as low as 20% of infected persons are asymptomatic and can transmit the virus, then even 95% quarantine efficacy will not be able to contain the virus.

Heavy statement coming from LANL and not some random twitter user. I am firmly in the “very afraid” camp now.

This is beyond troubling. Especially given how conservatively the Canadian government is reacting, for the sake of political correctness. They should implement travel ban from china and get all Canadians out of China ASAP.

Edit: the confidence interval on the Ro is incredibly high, from 2.8 to almost 11. Further, data used was the official numbers, and we know from reporting from the ground that there is a lot of doubt in those numbers. For example, wuhan government limiting the number of test strips to prevent the case count from skyrocketing.