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But our theory says that the good outcome is certain!

/s

The problem is that true believers in the correctness of their theory are horrible at risk analysis, because they assign 100% probability to the success of their program.

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Consider a variation on the trolley problem. Just like always, there are two track branches and a switch. On the main track, there are five people, on the side track there is one person. But this time things are a tiny bit different. The trolley driver is braking. And the five people on the main track are a few hundred yards down the track, so maybe the trolley will be able to stop before it runs them over. But not. But there is a chance. The one person on the side track, on the other hand, is right here, there is no chance in hell they live if you pull the switch. So what do you do? How do you even reason about something like this?

To me, it's really simple. I don't throw the switch. I trust the five people to get off the %^$#@ tracks before the trolley gets there. And I trust the trolley driver to get on the horn to alert the five people that they'd better start doing so without delay.

In the problem, the people are tied down to the tracks. Or possibly glued. Or to make it even more horrifying, riveted :)

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