Some cities that took on a traffic safety challenge are seeing fatalities go up
citylab.com
citylab.com
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/oslo-traffic...
Road deaths in Oslo (pop. 673.000) in 2019:
Pedestrians: 0 Cyclists: 0 Children: 0
Totally different outcome from ”vision zero” - actually 0. Impressive.
If urban politicians in cities "just short of the border" to Scandinavia like Berlin or Hamburg propose such measures, residents with traffic experience in both places will often chuckle, because car drivers but even more so cyclists are much more aggressive in Germany than in Scandinavia.
It is not uncommon for urban pedestrians in Germany to be more concerned with danger posed to them by cyclists than by cars.
I traveled to Mumbai, India twice in the last year a few months apart. Certain intersections that I traveled through on a daily basis used to have vehicles inching into the intersection well before their lights turned green, which usually caused problems, in the first trip. In the second trip, only a few months later, this had almost completely disappeared. The reason was the installation of I believe cameras, that ticketed cars if they entered the intersection on red, and this created enough of a change that two people visiting a few months apart would have diametrically opposite views of the driving culture of that region of the city.
So, no.
Tourists who are simply not used to a system where cyclists get equal importance as cars.
Of course, since cyclists are humans, I’m sure there are some assholes, and there are probably cases where non assholes also make mistakes.
The difference, as the numbers clearly show, is that in cities where the biggest fear is mad max cyclists, the number of deaths are hundreds fewer than where car driving is the norm.
Most European cities advocated a different approach, where bikes had their own infrastructure built out that meant European cyclists ride slow “Euro” style bikes with baskets, usually don’t go very fast, etc.
Further, good infrastructure means that bicyclists never have to interact with pedestrians other than in well controlled areas with proper signals etc that make clear when the cyclists should be moving and when the pedestrians.
There are a lot of well behaved cyclists, but there is also a hard-core of aggressive cyclists who seem to take it as their right to never have to slow down for anyone or anything, and woe betide you if you get in their way (e.g. the guy in that article above who was jailed after killing a pedestrian had the excuse that he shouted at her to get out of his way, so it was her fault for getting hit). They will go through red lights, turn the wrong way, go down the wrong way of one-way streets, barrel through pedestrian crossings while people are crossing, ride along pedestrian paths etc etc etc.
They are much more dangerous than cars purely because of their unpredictability (compared to cars which 99.9999% of the time do what you expect - like follow the rules, don't drive along the pedestrian paths etc) and sense of being untouchable I guess. Not everything ends in a death like this poor lady, but there are countless near-misses and people having to jump out of the way from cyclists who refuse to slow down or go through red light etc etc every day - it is happening all the time in London and you see it multiple times each day.
There was talk after the events in the linked article about forced registration plates for cyclist to try and bring some sort of accountability, but I think that was shelved "because environment" or something.
However what I fear the most isn’t cars or other cyclists but mopeds and motorcycles, especially ones with high acceleration. I’ve seen mopeds sneak up on cycle lanes, block up the cycle bay at the front of intersections (which is scary when you are on a bicycle in those bays because the mopeds don’t necessarily accelerate in a straight line) and worst of all, accelerate fast when the light turns from red to orange. The last is an issue because unlike cars the acceleration is much quicker - I’ve witnessed last-minute pedestrians crossing an intersection get startled or almost hit by mopeds accelerating too early.
As they should! Cyclists are often closer by and silent.
Add to the fact that many cyclists are using the bike for exercise and seem to want to keep pace at any cost.
But mostly - a car is made for running in to humans at relatively low speed, causing as little damage as possible.
Bikes not so much.
I’d much rather be hit by a car at 30km/h than a bike.
Come to think of it - drivers license for cars probably makes a difference as well.
Edit - anecdote:
A co-worker of mine got hit by a bike at a buss stop. Not really super fast, but oh my he got tangled. Punctured lung, ruptured spleen, broken ribs etc. He was off work for almost a year in total. A modern car would most likely not have caused him, or the rider the kind of damage they incurred.
With a bicycle I'm quite sure the odds of a fatality are <<1%
Getting hit by a bike a 30km/h might well get you killed though, judging from the state of my friend mentioned above.
A bike have no deformation zones and no slick surfaces to slide along.
Thank you for enlightening me with some numbers though.
(But I don't know what the figures mean.)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2018.10.018 at https://s23705.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Pedestrian...
A 100kg cyclist + bicycle vs a 1500kg car (+ driver)
A modern car have deformation zones and angles for you to basically slide along - you will never get the impact of that full mass.
A bike, well, you will come to a hard stop and it’s got metal rods sticking out here and there.
Getting hit by a bicycle at high speed is worse than what you’d expect, at least according to my personal experiences.
That protects the people in the car, not those outside. Being hit by those deformation zones _will_ hurt.
There is one thing that makes modern cars less dangerous to pedestrians, and it's that when someone is hit by a car they are more likely to roll over the hood than under the wheel. HOWEVER this is only the case for sedans, and definitely NOT for SUVs. Now look at the proportion of SUVs in your area.
None of which is meant to imply that being hit by a speeding bike is harmless, of course.
Nonsense, all modern cars have deformation zones specifically for protecting pedestrians during collisions. All modern crash tests by EuroNCAP etc. have tests for such impacts and current results speak volumes for the improvements in this area.
https://www.euroncap.com/en/vehicle-safety/the-ratings-expla...
Here's the ratings for the Tesla Model 3 vs. pedestrians for example: https://cdn.euroncap.com/media/54117/pedestriancrashimage.pn...
You can see clearly the impact of the very soft bumpers designed specifically for such crashes.
I’m no expert by any means, but I’m certain though that pedestrian safety is considered when it comes to car design.
Having a crumple zone that absorb energy seems like it would work in favor of someone getting hit as well?
That would be including the accidents where the car never stopped, e.g. backing out from a garage and running over a toddler the driver didn't see.
Not someone slowly backed over by massive vehicle, which is most likely included in the death count.
Slow backing car vs slow bicycle? I take impact with slow bike every day.
I've taken to carrying an umbrella everywhere, swinging it quite dramatically as I walk. This seems to be an effective way to cause cyclists to keep a safe distance.
Just awful. He barely survived, being reasonably fit and not too old/weak.
If it was my choice - yes I would, assuming a somewhat modern car.
What in the hell was going on there? I mean, I get GP's point about aggressive cyclists. I noticed them in Berlin especially (straight, wide roads on flat terrain), but even then people will usually try to brake before they run into you. This kind of damage sounds insane. Was the cyclist hitting him at full-speed? If so, how???
You have main road, then a curb followed by a bicycle lane followed by a buss stop with a pedestrian sidewalk behind it.
If you want to get to the buss you need to cross the cycle-lane.
If the cyclist is careless and speeding, and you maybe are not paying enough attention, bad stuff can and do happen.
Just the other week a guy got hit in the arm by a slow riding bike while waiting, which made him so pissed he grabbed the bike rider by the arm and kind of threw him to the ground.
People had to separate them from fist fighting.
At 30km/h you’ll have approx ~5 deaths of 100, by car.
I don’t think you’ll have much less by bike at those speeds but injuries might well be worse - see stats of hospital times car vs bicycle.
https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/1...
It also says Norway as a whole has a death rate of 23 per million, not much lower than the uk (1 in 26)
It’s probably easier to keep numbers down in less populated areas as well.
I’ve driven in London, as a rightie, and if those numbers checks out I’m equally impressed!
Narrow, people, cars and scoters everywhere. It felt crazy at times, but I’m sure using the “wrong” side of the street compounded the issue. :)
Where do you get that 23? I looked it up and see 21.6. The average before the vision zero stuff started was much higher, BTW.
https://www.ssb.no/transport-og-reiseliv/artikler-og-publika...
https://www.tryggtrafikk.no/pressemeldinger/109-omkom-i-traf...
I don't suppose it really matters, considering how the graph for the past 20 years looks ;)
Impressive result, but i don't think it's reproducible much elsewhere.
I got overtaken over a blind corner in a 50 zone, by a car doing around 100... Had to quickly get off the road once when I realised an oncoming truck wasn't going to slow down or budge, one tyre slipped off the road (or rather there was a crack on the edge of the road, flicked my steering into the woods). Also experienced being in a Tesla driven by an otherwise calm girl, was both fearing for my life and excited the entire time haha.
Would definitely do a road trip around Norway again, and stick to the more scenic routes again, however. So much fun, and so much beautiful scenery. Maybe the latter was what impeded my driving ability :)
It was super obvious when these cities committed to Vision Zero on hilariously overoptimistic timelines that they weren't taking it seriously at all. It was just a bullet point to signal that they cared, without having to do actual work or sacrifice any convenience for cars.
Just recently there was a proposition in Germany to enact an absolute speed limit on the Autobahn. The german Autobahn is famous for having no upper speed limit (in reality you only have that in some parts though), so you can imagine how well that went...
It's one of the "drawbacks" of living in a democracy I guess: Revolutionary changes are basically impossible to implement, because the disadvantaged side also has a right to be heard.
30% of the Autobahn have a mandatory speed limit for varying reasons, mostly safety (high incidence of accidents for example). On 70% there is an advisory speed limit of 130kph.
This means, it is inadvisable to exceed this speed even under the best of circumstances. Now in practice this has very little meaning. You may speed with impunity.
Until there is an accident. Then if a driver has exceeded the 130kph he will invariably be assigned a higher liability for consequences of the accident since the driver accepted the increased risk for accidents by operating the vehicle at a speed above the advisory speed limit. This is even true, if the other party to the accident is completely at fault. The only exception would be, if it can be shown beyond a doubt that the accident would have happened at the recommended speed of 130kph as well. In practice this is next to impossible.
There have been several attempts to change the advisory speed limit to a mandatory speed limit. Albeit the arguments aren't clearly on the side of the proponents. Regarding accidents, a statistic from the German autobahn ministry in 2018 stated that 71% of all deaths on the autobahn occur in places with no mandatory speed limit. Since 70% of the autobahn have no speed limit, one might wonder, what the expected result of a mandatory speed limit is expected to be.
In addition 33.6% of all kilometers are driven on the autobahn while only 12% of all deaths occur on the autobahn. 60% of all traffic deaths do occur on rural roads which have speed limits throughout.
Regarding climate change argument, the estimated reduction of total CO2 with a mandatory speed limit of 120kph would be 0.2% or even less if the mandatory speed limit were 130kph.
A visit to the neighbors Austria and Switzerland (both have speed limits on the autobahn) would also destroy the expectation, that smaller cars would be bought, if there were a mandatory speed limit on the autobahn.
What I will say however, whenever I drive on the german Autobahn at some point it happens to me that I'm in the left lane to take someone over and another car comes speeding towards me from seemingly kilometers away at the speed of a damn rocketship. Whatever the hard numbers may be, this causes high amounts of stress and makes me feel very uncomfortable on the road every time. Not a good state to be in while operating high-velocity death machines!
[0] I guess reasonable in this case means what I'm used to from driving on other countries' highways
EDIT: Sorry, I changed my response while you were actively responding it seems! You can call me a bad driver all you want. The fact is that the rules should be made to accommodate bad drivers also. Survival of the fittest is not a good rule when it comes to traffic law!
But sure, maybe the rules should better account for bad drivers.
E: > The fact is that the rules should be made to accommodate bad drivers also. Survival of the fittest is not a good rule when it comes to traffic law!
Of course, but people also need to take personal responsibility for their actions. Statistically the autobahn is quite safe, it's not clear that adding global speed limits would make it much better. It's very difficult to balance this possible minor safety increase with the fact that many (perhaps even most?) people find it vastly more comfortable to drive on the autobahn as is.
There are places where I refuse to drive because I'm not comfortable with the environment, there's no way you'll find me driving in a city like Barcelona or London. Perhaps you should do everyone (especially yourself!) a favour and consider the same in regards to the Autobahn?
Thank you for the discussion!
You yourself admitted to driving dangerously by overtaking in corners while ignoring the prevailing traffic conditions, for some reason you’ve now edited that part out.
Pointing this out isn’t an attack on your character. I’m a bad driver too, I get far too stressed out while driving in busy cities so I just don’t do that.
So let's assume the one you're overtaking is going with a solid 100. What's significant? Let's say 150? +50%. The one approaching with 240 is still the perceived rocket ship.
Also, just for completeness, here's a blog post about some case[1] where the speed was being judged, 10km/h is barely enough. So let's be generous and change my example to 100+120.
[0]: https://www.gesetze-im-internet.de/stvo_2013/__5.html
[1]: https://www.deubner-recht.de/news/verkehrsrecht/details/arti...
It sounds like you're doing something wrong if this happens regularly. Either you're overtaking without paying attention to your surroundings or you're overtaking cars your vehicle isn't reasonably capable of overtaking.
Going slow on the fast lane is supposed to be uncomfortable.
Does that make any difference if you’ve got reasonably good insurance?
What people also tend to forget is that a healthy, functional democratic state doesn't protect individual interests, it protects the collective by majority vote, for better or worst. As an individual, the state will protect you in so far that your protection benefits the collective.
The main difference with other forms of governance, such as a technocracy, is that you, as an individual, at least have a vote every so often and the chance to participate in an open public debate.
If the majority of people are pro-cars, then a democratic society will spawn politicians and politics that are largely pro-car. That's just par for the course. The prerogative of the minority is the freedom to voice their dissent.
The main reason why pro-car politics lead to half-baked policies, is because no car driving individual likes to see how their peers run over their close friends and family members. Crosswalks or bicycle lanes don't just exist to keep pedestrians and cyclists safe, they also exist because a high number of traffic deaths is comes with political consequences on their part.
As such, the quality of public transport, pedestrian or cyclist infrastructure, or how the justice system deals with traffic incidents, is a reflection of how important the majority deems to the safety of those who aren't in a car when they are behind the wheel.
At the end of the day, I feel there's a ton of cognitive dissonance involved when you are used to driving a ton of steel hurtling 20, 30 or 40 miles an hour down the road. Car constructors have made cars so much safer... for drivers and their passengers. Sadly, it often takes an accident before one starts to realize the impact and the consequences of their behavior in reality. That doesn't mean this isn't true for pedestrians and cyclists as well: you can't reasonably expect that every driver is going to yield every single time.
The crux is to approach a workable balance in that shared responsibility through sensible policies. And that's an ever-lasting exercise. Throwing your arms up and giving up fundamental freedoms in order for a technocratic regime to make sweeping policy changes, that's just throwing the good away with the bad parts.
Sadly, I think the goal of implementing policies in support of "the collective" largely got replaced with populism and catering to and never ever doing anything to anger our holy cow "the economy"[0]. IMO the politicians in my parent's time where held to a higher standard than the general populace and that's why they could implement policies that, while maybe frustrating to people in the short term (remember when seatbelts weren't a thing? I don't!), lead to a positive outcome in the long run and people instinctively knew this and trusted their elected representatives.
Today... well Donald Trump sits in the White House and populists are flooding european governments, so of course nothing can get done if nobody is willing to make principled decisions.
[0] Maybe I should make it clear that the people who speak for "the economy" are oftentimes a small minority of leaders of very big organizations not actually representing the bulk of what makes up the economy of a country.
Seriously though, this is classic pablum. The kind of thing that gets whispered and then can't be turned off, and ends up being eagerly adopted by people who know they're going to half-ass it.
Note that the economically less fortunate districts of LA dominate the drunk driving fatalities by capita: https://starpointinjurylaw.com/research/deadliest-cities-dru...
It's not just the cost of the cab / uber, it's not having your car when you wake up, no good way to get it, and not being sure if the lot you left it in is going to have it impounded / booted or something.
Still waiting for the uber/tow combo that guarantees your car arrives before you wake up, and in the exact condition it was in when they went to pick it up.
There are some American equivalents, using folding mini-motorcycles: https://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/27/business/smallbusiness/27...
getting people to use public transportation - haha that's a whole 'nother podcast I'd like to do.. it's just not happening.
The booting, and LAZ parking's new "barnacle" - it's just absurd, as are the prices they charge.
Vars could start fixing the problem with tows - or the double drivers as another pointed out below, is popular in Japan..
or the cops could start pulling licenses for the places that are over serving.. or do the Salt Lake law where bars have to stop serving an hour before close / stay open an hour later than they stop serving..
I mean, something should be done. It's a true safety issue, and people are profiting by looking the other way every day in just about every city as far as I know.
The most notable change in SF has been the delayed light cycle after pedestrian crosswalk comes on. There was a spike in deaths after that change and I understood why immediately - drivers were timing the light by watching the crosswalk countdown and/or the cross traffic's light cycle. Your light used to turn green just as the other direction's light turned red. When they suddenly changed all the light I noticed a fair number of cars jolt forward then stop, confused, until their light actually changes 4 seconds later.
I'm not sure how this change results in deaths directly, but it definitely added to road rage out there. When the light does change and a car is turning, the expectations are different now. Pedestrians are in the middle of the street already and are less wary of cars jumping out because before there was a moment when everyone would figure out the situation before moving (ideally). Now people are mid-crosswalk and have no idea when the cars' light is going to change which leaves pedestrians more vulnerable.
Another issue I imagine is cars that are making a legal right turn on a red light. The driver looks to see if they can go and have their head turned the exact opposite direction of the crosswalk and wouldn't be aware of when the crosswalk symbol changes. Meanwhile, pedestrians aren't expecting a car to suddenly turn into them 2 seconds after they step into the crosswalk and it is a recipe for disaster. I don't see how they can fix that now without banning all turns on red.
There is also a particularly ugly intersection at Laguna and Geary where they instituted a delayed green when crossing over Geary. People were getting run over in the crosswalks because there is an extra long crosswalk on both sides and cars were turning from both directions with other cars getting backed up and unable to go around them. Because there isn't room for dedicated turn lanes, they have one side go then the other side go, but people lose their shit when they see the southbound cars coming at them for 15 seconds while their light is still red because all prior experience at other lights indicates they should also have a green light when other cars are going... I have seen multiple cars simply drive through that red light and one time 3 cars in a row just decided to go despite the red. They finally put up a sign that says "delayed green" which seems to be helping, but it is an imperfect solution and another counter-intuitive solution.
If that doesn‘t change and people have no actual interest in the well-being of their fellow humans (which exceeds their interest to be home 10 seconds earlier) you can tout 0-fatality plans all you want, they will never pan out.
Not to detract from your point, though. A lot of the Market St. intersections are deathtraps because of the diagonal grid-cutting nature of that street. You get really weird 5-way intersections that are confusing to navigate by drivers, illegal Uber/Lyft pickups, and mentally ill people (esp. near Civic Center) wandering aimlessly into the street. Hopefully the recent car ban will fix these issues.
The delayed lights are actually intended to address a pedestrian safety issue (see starting at slide 21 here: https://www.cityofpaloalto.org/civicax/filebank/documents/68...). I'm not aware of any spike in deaths, but it's possible there were unintended consequences as you described. IMO unprotected lefts at signals and right-on-red are inherently unsafe, but they're too integral to American driving culture to change at this point.
When the light is green on the N-S street, pedestrians have the right of way to cross N and S (on the E and W sides of the intersection). Cars going straight N and S also have the right of way, and cars can turn left or right from the N-S street after they yield to oncoming traffic and pedestrians.
There are a few intersections in Ontario with a dedicated phase for crossing in any direction, including diagonally, but they're rare.
Anyway, I bet the different ways traffic signals work inform people's perception of traffic and streets in different places.
In the UK. Where I am if there is a light for a pedestrian to cross that guarantees no car will be trying to cross your path. I feel like you shouldn’t show a pedestrian a light if cars are still allowed to cross their path! Seems dangerous and misleading and it scares me every time.
In most cases what happens here is that the whole intersection gets stopped for pedestrians periodically, so you can cross diagonally as well.
Why isn’t that popular in North America? Trying to interleave cars and pedestrians and let cars edge towards you menacingly as they try to turn across your path is absolute madness to me.
I do prefer the UK way, but the downside in a car-centric place like most of Britain is there's much less time for pedestrians to cross. You often wait over a minute for the pedestrian light to go green.
To me this seems like the single biggest change that would help pedestrians, irrespective of anything else.
Given that most modern cars now start and stop the engine, "right turn on red" needs to die.
When they want to slow down a bike trail they put a "S" in it, then line it with large boulders... typically where there's no street lights.
From the text: "Several factors are fueling this disconcerting trend, from low gas prices that make it easier to drive, rollbacks on state-level traffic safety laws, the ongoing prevalence of digital distractions, and the rising popularity of ride-hailing services and heavy-duty SUVs. Such factors are frustratingly beyond the control of local leaders."
Some of those, ok. But well, you can't stop people from buying SUVs, but nobody says you have to give them free or cheap parking spaces in dense cities or make streets wider for them. You can't stop ride-hailing services, but you can police them to follow traffic rules. You can't control gas prices, but you can control parking fees (and police them). You can't change state-level safety-laws, but you can make sure the existing ones are followed.