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I contend the actual death rate should be :

Deaths / ( deaths + recoveries )

Everything else is “in progress”, without a defined conclusion.

That would be (based on today’s numbers):

813 / ( 813 + 2,669 )

Which equals 23% (truncated).

I believe this to be more indicative of the potential threat of the virus, especially in the early stages. Well, at least it puts an upper bound on it.

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OK. I just used the Deaths / ( deaths + recoveries ) formula:

Hubei province: 780/2219 = 35.1%

Other provinces combined: 32/1256 = 2.5%

So Hubei has 14 times of death rate as other provinces combined.

That may very well be possible. Keep calculating it each day and see how the graph of it looks.

You’re definitely onto something interesting here.

Resource constraints play a major factor in the death rate. People who are in critical condition with the virus can be saved in an ICU by being placed on artificial respiration.

In Hubei, the epicentre, there is an extreme shortage of hospital beds. Most people are sent away, even with severe symptoms. This is why the death rate is higher.

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