> I've been scouring the darker corners of the internet obsessively for every seemingly reputable bit of data under the assumption that virtually anything official out of China could not be trusted.

I do the same. If you can read Chinese, I strongly recommend you read Sina Weibo, a micro-blogging social media in China, or Toutiao. Read them quickly before posts are inevitably deleted by the censors. There are some truly harrowing stories of ordinary people being refused treatment and left to die at home.