Modern workers are at the mercy of ratings
economist.com
economist.com
One of the big problems with trying to rate workers is that most workers have approximately the same rating. In other words, the differences in ratings are not statistically significant; they are just as well explained by pure chance.
Building a system where you incentivise and promote on a random draw of cards is bad in and of itself, but doing it and then labeling it as being based on merit is actively hostile to anything you're trying to accomplish. You are building a culture of people stabbing each other in the back in desperation to win your lottery, and not a healthy environment of cooperation and focus on productivity.
Yes, sometimes you have a worker who performs off the charts in either direction. That's a great opportunity! If they perform much better than someone else, put them in a position where they can coach and train others in how to do things that well. If they are much worse, try training them or otherwise find them a different job they can do better.
Other than that special case, the only way to improve the performance of the system is to give the workers better tools, better information, better understanding, more cooperation, better ability to do their job. The manager is the only one standing in the way of the workers doing a better job.
But then how do you assign bonuses and raises when everyone performs approximately the same? Split them across everyone. That simple. Think in terms of incentivising the team, not the individual.
And things like promotions that can't be shared among many people? Ask the workers themselves who they think are a good fit for the position. Chances are they know that hell of a lot better than a manager will. And it is abundantly clear how to get a promotion: make a good impression on your team. Cooperate, teach, help out, be nice, do good work. And these are -- by a weird coincidence -- just the things you want to accomplish.
> And it is abundantly clear how to get a promotion: make a good impression on your team. Cooperate, teach, help out, be nice, do good work.
… it strikes me that the problem is that the way to get a promotion would be to seem to cooperate, teach, help out, be nice & do good work, not necessarily actually do those things — one might end up with promotees who simply know how to game the system.
It might still be preferable to the current state of affairs, which as you note hardly works.
I guess that both concerning layoffs and bonuses doing lifo respectively uniform or linear with time at the company would have best results.
My understanding is that the bosses don't really know how much valuable work people do.
It seems ideological, or philosophical or based on limited industries.
It can also be dehumanizing to imply people can’t get any result from trying hard, or that everyone has equal abilities.
I’m just not exactly sure why you are saying this, what it is based on, and what the goal is here.
True. But few if any “jobs” held by knowledge workers are just a single, repetitive task, over and over, like Demming was observing when he studied productivity on assembly lines. So while you may find a team has variation among members when looking at a single skill, as a manager it’s really hard to pin down the success of the team to one thing done by one person. In fact, from a management point of view, “success” is often “we got the job done” and not “everything was done perfectly”, so a team member who does one or two things really well is treated more or less like an outlier, and their work averages out.[1] Unless...
Unless the manager has unwittingly pitted the members of the team against each other, in order to find the “top performer”! This will reduce productivity of the team overall as they waste time defending against each other. A net loss overall.
Don’t get me wrong, there are times when competition is healthy, but quite often it’s applied as a kind of micro-optimization that doesn’t really benefit the organization overall. (Many orgs have enough money to allow this nonsense, unfortunately.)
[1] Try and write a job description for someone on your team, and you’ll quickly realize how complicated it is to even know what skills are key, which are nice to have, etc.
There can be huge variations in performance between people. But this variation tends to be internally consistent. You don't have one or two workers that perform multiple standard deviations away from the mass.
Think of it as drawing people from a distribution with large variance. When assigning bonuses to individuals, you're looking for statistical anomalies, i.e. you want to find that one person that appears to be drawn from a completely different distribution. That is what is very rare.
Large variation in performance but without any statistical anomalies still means everyone is performing "within the systems natural boundaries." There's no reason to suspect someone comes at it from a completely different angle.
That said, of course you want to minimise the variation of your system. If nothing else because it makes it easier for you to find the true outliers.
But you don't reduce variance by giving raises to the top performers -- that will, at the very best, make them perform better, thus increasing variance further.
Better try to reduce variance by bringing the other people up, which requires much more involved management than just giving more money to the ones with the high numbers.
yes, bringing people up that are not doing as well, has in my (anecdotal of course) experience, resulted in huge overall gains for all-round team performance (people share info with each other, help each other, are more motivated etc)
i would add, that unfortunately, the trend seems to be in the opposite direction...
If I was a renter and wanted to disassociate from bad reviews, I imagine the easiest way to do it would be to transfer overship of the property to a holding company or similar. This is far harder to do and there’s far more cost.
getting a prepaid sim is a "high barrier"?
If I get bad service or ripped off I want to be able to tell anyone and everyone "STAY AWAY!" but instead I know that if I do that no one will rent to me. Why would they? They can just make sure to choose only people that never post a bad review.
The only way to avoid this I can imagine is relying on cryptographic zero-knowledge proofs to defer ratings to an external network (ideally decentralized, but a neutral third-party ala TripAdvisor could work too). The platform gives the customer and provider a token when the transaction takes place, and they can use it to anonymously sign a review on the external ratings platform.
You'll rent a place that ends up being on the noisy highway and the worst rating you'll find is "great for early risers!"
The rating system does not work. Airbnb doesn't care about rating inflation because it just makes everything look like 5-star experience.
Uber is frustrating for other reasons. I've never made an Uber driver wait for me, I'll greet the driver, and I can't imagine how someone can be a better customer. I have a 4.1 rating and can't get VIP because of my rating. My girlfriend doesn't even believe in getting up to leave the house until the app tells her the Uber is there. She constantly calls uber for large loud drunk groups, redirects her rides, and yammers on her phone the whole ride. She has a 4.8+.
Aside, my girlfriend also rates all Uber drivers 3/5 because that's an average rating. They get a 4/5 if they go above and beyond. I actually though 5-star systems had merits until I met her. Now I'm firmly against them.
I thought this is a non-issue because airbnb withholds reviews until both parties have written a review?
>or to avoiding seeming like a dick / hard customer. I suspect it's the latter -- there really is no upside to being an honest critic.
I personally don't understand this. If a place is legitimately bad, it's not being a "dick / hard customer", it's telling the truth. The upside is that you added slightly more information to the market.
My girlfriend & I discovered large patches of mushrooms growing out of the master bedroom carpet in an otherwise very unhealthy AirBnB. I wanted to write feedback on the house, but I couldn't warn others since AirBnB's policy in such cases is to remove the listing. I spotted the listing not long after with a clean slate. I'm sure they cleaned the place, but I'm also sure they didn't tear out the floors and fix the root problem. Too bad no one will know since the ratings won't be a source of info in such cases.
Maybe AR will open a new door there... I know it would be an extremely hard problem to solve - it might involve cutting-edge techniques in AR, AI, computer vision and so on - but I think there might be a billion dollar market there.
The pain certainly exists as reviews could be useful, but they're trash almost everywhere (Uber, AirBnB, Google, Amazon, Deliveroo, etc.) due to platform-owner incentives.
Seems like you'd want to pair it with a browser extension (want to avoid making that booking in the first place), and the back-end engineering is very similar to what (IMO/AFAIK) you'd need to support similar reality overlays in "true" AR.
As for the business model of this independent platform, one could still make a ton of money out of it as long as its revenue-generating incentives were disaligned from the review scores, and I really think that's not such a hard problem to solve.
For the AR-ish part... Oh, widgets! Right? Like clock, or weather, or the news thing. Constantly (modulo performance) update what you're showing on the widget based on location. Or dynamic notifications; "this is how many reviewed locations we know of at this location".
This is really the bare minimum. I know a ton of drivers who care less about wait time than some other annoying tics their customers might have. I've lived in a region where the median rating seems to be around a 4.4. I've never met someone with a 4.1 uber rating.
I'm going to postulate that you're being VERY rude in a way you don't know. Maybe have someone ride with you and critique your behavior.
With driver ratings, I can see my driver's rating and they can see it too. The rating system in Lyft (not sure about Uber) also has buttons you can use to explain why you gave a bad rating or indicate what you liked about a driver, which presumably provides anonymous feedback to the driver on how they could improve their scores.
In comparison, a passenger with bad driver ratings gets no feedback or incentive to improve, and it's hard to know whether they could improve at all. If they have a bad rating from drivers they may never know and will just have a bad experience with the app, potentially forever. If you pick up a fare who already has a rating of 1.5/5, are you more likely to negatively interpret their behavior and give them a low score? Psychology is a factor here.
An anecdote: On my third ever ride with Uber, the driver told me I had a very, very low passenger score. That means one of my first drivers gave me a low rating, probably a 1 or 2. Why? I have no idea. He didn't know either. Maybe the driver was having a bad day or thought I was rude, or the driver had trouble finding my pick-up location. In the end the only outcome was that it took me longer to get a driver to pick me up afterward because drivers saw my low score. (I use Lyft now instead and have no problems)
It is a matter of the push and pull of scale advantages at varied sizes essentially which is essentially universal but varies by domain.
I had a professor who was a terrible lecturer, and he knew his student evaluations were terrible every time. As he handed out the evaluations he would tell us that he did not read them, and did not care what we wrote.
I graduated twenty years ago, but just checked the department's website. He's still employed!
At my university, the law school was top-notch (at least, it is the best in the country) and it got the lowest score by far every year. Why? High expectations, huge number of students competing hard. The best school? Theology. Why? Low expectations, not many students in a far less competitive environment (And I studied in both and in probably four or five faculties across the school...Law was the best, Theology the worst...not even close, the former had people from Law firms, you got full feedback on everything...the latter, you usually got no feedback on any work).
This is really the point...now, you can do some kind of grouped mean model or you can compare over time...but what is the actual point? The reason they do this (or did this at my uni) was to compare departments/courses...but everyone knew it was bullshit...people lost jobs (I actually met the Dean who masterminded this, he came from the private sector, taught a minor course in the business school, and was utterly clueless).
The usual argument that has been given in favour of evaluations is to show a correlation with final exam scores. The two problems being (1) small samples and (2) soft-ball exams leading to higher evaluation scores.
Humans are not able to accurately evaluate their own learning. When we experience fluency or are entertained, we substitute those attributes for the attribute of ability to recognise or recall information.
They're also insisted upon by courts to adjudicate wrongful termination cases as well as discrimination cases.
My elite 10 person team was doing a great job on Device A, while Device B had a team of 200 semi-skilled foreign contractors just barely keeping things on track. Then, somehow, the company decided to reorg my super-skilled team and promoted the leader of the contractor team.
From 3-4 levels up in the company, the Device A team and the Device B team were IDENTICAL. They were both delivering things on time and under budget, even though team A was costing the company 1/5th as much, they were both fine. These products were generating hundreds of millions of dollars or maybe even billions in revenue per year, so the difference $5 million/year and $25 million was irrelevant.
If I'd realized this sooner, I wouldn't have put so much effort into doing a great job at the expense of my own interests, and it would've been just fine
I think it may also be useful to talk about the reliability and validity of all the things that are measured.
Also, how useful is this stuff among the different fields? The article talks about gig workers and manufacturers. Would be interesting if these metrics were applied rigorously to other fields like politicians, talk show pundits, and forecasters.
Higher classes get a title, which is a one off rubber stamp of quality and then will never again be judged on performance standing alone. Dr. Senior. Dipl. Ing.
Except by there peers, who will lower a silk of omerta over "internal" affairs like a lack of quality in work.
Of course, between these professions, there are meta-power struggles, which will play out, in a court- stylized fashion, a eternal ritualized war between castes like "management" and "technical execution".
Metrics, as demanded by one caste, are worthless, as they rely on a working interface provided by the oppossition or in depth knowledge, making a allegiance two too factions necessary.
Thus all that remains of them is a ritualized insistence, to compensate for the creeping feeling of a lack of controll. For those who need them, can not get them and be certain they are accurate. Making metrics, actually - a flag of truce.
This is a case of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politician%27s_syllogism.
We must do something
This is something
Therefore, we must do this.See also: Don't just do something, stand there!
A machine in which the parts of are made up of humans with 'feelings'. Distilling human beings down to cogs in a machine is bad enough when it comes from executives. This belief that corporations are some kind of non-human machine like entity is part of why the world's so fucked today.
Maybe the world would be a better place if corporations weren't run as inhuman machines with no care or regard to their employees or the world in which they operate.
What point in history are you arguing was less fucked than it is today?
I have seen no evidence that "hard numbers" work (they aren't "hard"...there is usually almost no justification for a particular metric). And it feeds on innumerable human biases (inability to confront uncertainty, using "hard" information to justify an emotional conclusion, creating meaningless targets, etc.).
In my experience, the practical issue is two-fold: one, people are just going to do what they do anyway but they ignore warnings signs/are more unflexible and two, you optimise for data that is obvious, collectable, and (usually) completely irrelevant.
This is a trend, it will pass as all these trends do. It started off as quite a good idea (businesses were often failing to set targets or quantify success/failure) and has just got totally out of control.
In a system of trust the key benefits are better products, happier employees who have less sick days and stick around longer, more creativity and new solutions that are appreciated by the community. The downside is that some employees, managers or contractors are going to take advantage of the trust in such a terrible way that you'll have no option but to swing towards control once the media finds out. A good example from my country is a decade back, when we had a lot of trust in our public sector and an elderly care facility was saving money by putting dirty diapers back on the elderly if the urine in the diapers didn't weigh enough. Crazy, right? But that's the stuff that happens with trust, you'll also see managers contracting out procurement contracts to companies they own themselves and other stuff like that.
On the opposite side you have the MBA based approach where everything is streamlined, measured and conformed. This is where you can build two hospitals for the price of 1,2 because the plan for them are exactly the same. It's where you LEAN every single business process up, and harvest the benefits. It's efficient, clean, and it slowly exhumes your business of value. Because the MBA approach very rarely manages to create something new, it's just really great at maximizing your current system. Eventually a neighboring city is going to do something wild, like figure out how to completely wipe out dyslexia by trying some crazy new method, because they trusted some hippie teacher with a plan. This is where you're forced to swing back toward trust and value tradeskills (not sure if this is the right word in English) because your politicians can't survive another period of having the highest dyslexia numbers in the country and nothing in the MBA playbook can help them.
This is a little simplified of course, and I'm certain things are different in the private sector, but I dare say, that if your organisation sticks around for long enough, it's bound to see the pendulum swing between those two outlines.
The way I perceive work is very helpful in this regard. To me, the purpose of work is to maximize my income/lifestyle while not dipping below a lower bound threshold of misery. I don't seek personal or emotional fulfillment from work at all. I did that when I was younger and, for me, it was a bad way to approach life. This way I'm much happier and my focus/attention is more on the kinds of things I hope will wind up in my obit: family, relationships, charity, etc.
I wonder if sales people ever write articles about how they're at the "mercy" of their sales metrics. The idea of it seems hilarious.
Thankfully I haven't had to deal with any metrics like this for more than a couple of months at a time.. Since engineers' specialty is to optimize ratings, it's an obvious-enough waste of time to apply them that they're usually short-lived.
Goodhart's law suggests that this is impossible.
Maybe you really do have a formula that outperforms a panel of subject matter experts. It does happen sometimes. Not for long, because the experts start using it. But the bar for making this kind of claim is, at minimum, peer-reviewed experimental results that reproduce.
Human experience is a rich dataset. Intuition is a sophisticated machine. It blows my mind that people will so easily dismiss all of that in favor of a few bits of information and some 3rd grade arithmetic they just made up.
It's not scientifically rigorous just because there's a table and a graph. Come on!
What? The metrics should be distilled from the overall company/org/team goals and mission and if you're working on things that don't align with those of course you're not going to have a good performance review.
I left my previous team partly because we went through three managers in less than a year, and I rarely saw them. I assume the performance feedback for the team was effectively nonsense.
I suggest that for most things, customer ratings are completely irrelevant.
They might want to ask specific, relevant questions, such as: "Was the car/flat generally clean and tidy" "Were there any problems entering the facility" on the customer side "Did the customer generate problems with the authorities" "Did the customer disrupt your ability to drive" "Did the customer make repeated requests for out-of-bounds services even when they were informed such requests could not be fulfilled" "Did the customer party include more individuals than indicated on the reservation"
etc. etc.
Then they can glean specific bits of information and provide guidance.
Otherwise, general reviews are pointless because they're muddy, set to different standards, emotional, unspecific etc.
This company I've worked at for about a year now is the first place I've been exposed to worker ratings in my career, and this has been my strategy. I refuse to play the game, and give everyone a perfect score no matter what. It absolutely does not benefit us workers in any way to give someone less than perfect marks across the board. It is literally nothing but a tool used by management to provide justification when it comes time to downsize. Furthermore I've noticed that it tends to breed a culture of distrust and backstabbing among colleagues, who may use the opportunity as retribution for personal slights. It's an awful policy.
Corporations are rated, as well, on all sorts of numerical metrics.
B) Get a different job.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-Fifths_Compromise
Not sure if an intentional dog whistle