Systemic Risk of Pandemic via Novel Pathogens-Coronavirus [pdf]

"Historically based estimates of spreading rates for pandemics in general, and for the current one in particular, underestimate the rate of spread because of the rapid increases in transportation connectivity over recent years. This means that expectations of the extent of harm are underestimates both because events are inherently fat tailed, and because the tail is becoming fatter as connectivity increases" ...

"Together, these observations lead to the necessity of a precautionary approach to current and potential pandemic outbreaks that must include constraining mobility patterns..."

"It will cost something to reduce mobility in the short term, but to fail do so will eventually cost everything—if not from this event, then one in the future...."