Iowa Caucuses, the Blob, and the Democratic Party Cartel
mattstoller.substack.com
mattstoller.substack.com
It's not at all clear to me that this is the case. I mean, sure, there are obviously big problems with the app's design and implementation. But there are ample signs of deeper problems with the customer (and indeed, TFA alludes to some of it).
The fact that the Party insisted on keeping specifics about the app secret until the last minute was the first big red flag to me. With the customer making such a demand about a product that's intended to be widely distributed with zero ramp-up time, they had at least two strikes against them from the start.
Further mess-ups outside the app development, like using the same phone lines for support and for reporting, are mistakes that don't obviously fall on the shoulders of the developer.
The customer - the Iowa Democratic Party - probably needs to bear at least part of the blame for this. It's true that an experienced developer might have given their customer better guidance, but that doesn't absolve the Party from these mistakes.
https://mobile.twitter.com/taraemcg/status/12239909781277245...
https://mobile.twitter.com/bhalle87/status/12245589259467939...
https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-a-dem-dark-money-group-is-...
*Edited for missing word
If 100% of the votes come in and the truth is that Bernie won, then there is a very strong case that the DNC cherry-picked results to screw Bernie and take momentum away from his campaign.
Actually, they don't quite match at all.
Sanders campaign released partial results on 4th/Feb that shows Sanders:29% and Buttigieg:24% [1][2]
[1] https://twitter.com/HCTrudo/status/1224578194948468739 [2] https://www.salon.com/2020/02/04/sanders-campaign-releases-i...?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iowa-caucus-results-delayed-by-...
EDIT:
Since this is apparently a “controversial” statement, here is the FEC data proving this is entirely true:
https://www.fec.gov/data/disbursements/?data_type=processed&...
https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/fecimg/?201912199166621206
Here's almost half a million to consultants from a big group of donors.
https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/fecimg/?201904159146174550
There's just so many payments and transfers to/from Senate and Presidential campaign and big donors that just go opaque as without knowing what the recipient really did with that money for every candidate that takes donations, this is a very hard problem to answer without a serious investigation by a team of journalists and lawyers.
My comment was in response to someone claiming that all the campaigns in Iowa had funded both groups. There is no evidence of that.
Not sure how much Gillibrand spent, but iirc Biden only spent $1250.
I'd even go further and say that no campaign staffer should be tied to any companies providing services to the campaign.
Edit: clarified - obviously campaigns consult companies for their success, but they shouldn't provide services to both the DNC and the campaign. Edit2: the IDP runs the caucus
>The incentives are aligned for both the company to refuse and the campaign to never ask because both would black ball them forever from politics...
Oh no... it shouldn't be voluntary, it should be required. If a company is providing services to a campaign, that same company should not have any role on the election side.
All of those papers have to be hand recounted because they're not setup to be machine counted.
https://www.axios.com/pete-buttigieg-michael-halle-senior-st...
Still feels like a parody of some sort. Let me know if I’m not getting it.
At a larger level, it makes understanding whats happening really difficult. Its hard to tell who is actually corrupt and who is "peacocking" corruption.
Now here we are years later and there are “app voting irregularities” from the people that swore up and down Russia was hacking our elections, you think those people would be more cautious if they actually believed those claims themselves.
Thinking about it some more, I guess this is probably a “attribute to incompetence, not malice” situation, but as amusing as I found it, really was just made for the conspiracy theorist!
State Democratic parties are cheap and obstinate. Most of the money is siphoned off by salaries and contractors. They don't work together nor work with the national party. When the deign to do so it is because their offered a lot of funding or favors.
I thought it was satire the first time I heard as well. Voting software from a company called Shadow inc. is just such bad optics. Nobody there thought to at least spin off a company called "Open Digital Democracy Services Inc.", open source the thing and maybe get some external entity to take a look at it?
This reminds me a bit about putting funny messages in logs which are emitted during catastrophic events. It might seem cute at the moment, but when shit hits the fan and the customer calls and quotes those lines back at you over the phone it is just so embarrassing.
Fails the acronym test. ODDS or ODDSInc (pronounced like odd-sink).
Still much better than Shadow though. I'd probably have just gone with something like "Crier", "Political Systems Awareness", or even "Total Internal Communications and iNfrastructure Services.
Crier is harmless because all you're doing is shouting the results from the rooftops to anyone who'll listen.
Everybody can respect a metrics communication implemented by that PSA company.
A little contrived and maybe a bit dated imagery-wise, but an IT company that's whose name degenerates to TIN-CANS (with a string in the middle of course) is refreshingly on the nose, and most importantly, way more appropriate than Shadow.
Naming is an art best approached with at least some level of care. Not trying to legitimize most marketing-wank, but you do prime the discourse through your decision with regards to what you call yourself.
Election volunteers are in a demographic that is targeted by the likes of Consumer Cellular ( data? we dont need that. We just want to call our friends once a month) , GranPad (a tablet with a VERY BIG button - tap here to make a video call to your family ) and AARP.
Someone needs to be out to lunch to think they would download an app, authenticate to it and be able to submit election results using it even with multi month of training.
And I can't really blame people for theorizing conspiracy. The IDP and DNC should've vetted this company in advance and declined due to the conflict of interest.
Let's not forget that they were told not to go ahead with using this app (albeit for other reasons than the ties to the Buttigieg campaign)[1].
[0]: https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/02/04/us/politics/ap-u... McGowan, 34, is married to Michael Halle, a senior strategist for Pete Buttigieg’s presidential campaign
[1]: https://www.npr.org/2020/01/14/795906732/despite-election-se...
That mainly focused on increasing transparency. Thanks to the activists, we got transparency on initial and final vote count before SDE%. Activists in 2016 pushed for financial transparency but that didn't pass.
And here we are.... with a firm called Shadow that borked an otherwise very well run caucus process.
The app is an excuse/trojan horse. They could have counted and reconfirmed it all by Tuesday with a strong phone bank, paper records alone.
https://mobile.twitter.com/kendallkarson/status/122481061735...
https://twitter.com/Senator_Hatch/status/1225783569605369856
They bear most of the fault.
The event they run is an every-4-year organizational nightmare run almost entirely by volunteers. It is akin to running a bunch of small conferences in synchrony, which is not something people really normally do.
It is entirely possible to get it right - it isn't super difficult, just a lot of work. But changing the rules, inserting the (bad) app, changing the phone numbers involved in the backup plan shortly beforehand... this process was doomed before they started.
I'm not defending the app - I really really don't think they should be heading down this path - but the app failure was as much shoddy planning and training was it was about the app.
(And I do hope this kills the caucus - far past time for it to go.)
Maybe one day we will have an honest and true post mortem of what happened on Monday. Reports have been conflicting and non-sensical. No one that I can find has managed to actually show the app in question in detail, what numbers were meant to be reported, and how it actually all fell apart.
I’ve heard explanations ranging from caucus chairs unable to login to the app, to the result reports coming out of the app being corrupted. Days later we’re still at only 70% precincts reporting and a race still too close to call. For what was apparently, a fairly low turnout event.
We’re talking about a web form collecting like 6 integer values from 1,765 precincts, right?
They had backup plans in place where the precincts would just phone their results in. (as you would expect) ... except nobody was answering the phones.
They were interviewing people on TV who were trying to report their precincts results over the phone, and were interviewing them while on hold. I remember one guy saying he's been waiting for hours for someone to answer.
The app is a scapegoat because people are willing to accept "testing in production" as something that just happens, instead of what in reality should be considered gross negligence.
I believe it's perfectly legitimate to speculate about why the party might be declining to release them and to make adverse inferences. The time delay granted by claiming "technical problems" has been exceeded.
Verifying the results that were scribbled on an undated piece of paper by 1600+ volunteers is not an easy task. [Esp after the fact, when the whole verification was centered around username / pw / 2fa / + pin, which may have not been readily accessible for call-center use].
The Des Moine Register poll was scrapped for less, which is why it feels like a cover-up. Not because of any candidate bias, but because the caucus probably needs to be redone for the results to be credible under scrutiny, or nullified entirely, which would be quite an embarrassment.
It was a mess, sure. My first major project was probably a mess too, except my "mess" would have been looking at a display and going "huh?", not being accused of trying to undermine democracy.
It was similar with Obamacare website. Done to the tune of $5 billion dollars (!!) it was mostly prepared by IT corporations located in India, the source code is/was terrible with jQuery hosted on some third-party CDN, it was/is a disaster.
I agree on the corruption part, but elected governments had very little to do with this. To me that’s a double edged sword - the caucus process could be an independent expression of the will of the people (in theory anyway) but it also isn’t subject to proper scrutiny nor required to be a transparent process.
I mean honestly, probably anyone here can create this “app” in a day.
Maybe I don’t understand the complexity, but it doesn’t feel like it has any. And if so, than no money could save it :)
https://www.axios.com/pete-buttigieg-michael-halle-senior-st...
This seems to be hyperbole, but I am not familiar with Matt Stoller so I reserved judgement and read a number of the back issues of his newsletter (archived at no charge on the site at https://mattstoller.substack.com/ ). I came across this https://mattstoller.substack.com/p/airplanes-and-accounting-... which was written in December and correctly predicts the subsequent collapse of Boeing.
Both articles are well written and insightful, the analysis is not from a political perspective but from a careful review of governance models and the impact of incentives on behavior.
As a non-American this kind of stuff has always been a bit bewildering for me. Why is such opacity accepted in the electoral/political process?
Doesn't this always risk shifting power to unknown and unaccountable individuals?
Doesn't this muddying of waters allow for all sorts of hidden conflicts of interest?
just flag every article and maybe enough others will join in and we can get back to pretending to having an agnostic view on this site
- In software engineering it is notoriously difficult to distinguish between capable and incapable companies/individuals. You basically need a very capable person to make the evaluation. But who chooses the evaluator ?
- Even a capable company can screw up by no putting the right people in the project.
- Even one person in a capable team can derail a project.
- A project needs time to ramp up, go from alpha testing to beta testing to production. A project that goes from dev to production in one night has 10x the risk of a regular project.
- 60k is very little money for such a risky project.
- Finally, The obligatory don't ever, ever trust voting software https://xkcd.com/2030/
1 : the act of conspiring together
Definition of conspire
1a : to join in a secret agreement to do an unlawful or wrongful act or an act which becomes unlawful as a result of the secret agreement
b : scheme
2 : to act in harmony toward a common end
Following the above, a conspiracy can be "the act of working in harmony toward a common end". Otherwise known as Politics. Whether there's a conspiracy here isn't up for debate; by definition a political party is a conspiracy. What's debatable is if they conspired illegally.
"It’s not a conspiracy, it’s a community."
I don't know. I have serious doubts about whether or not we're seeing foul-play here. What we know for sure is that the app in question was partially funded by a(at least one) candidate. Essentially, a candidate gave money to the system that counted their votes. The company behind the app was founded by people tied to the Democratic 'establishment' (specifically, Hillary Clinton). And, as far as I can tell, the Democratic party has done everything in their power to ensure the candidate with the most name recognition and popular support in the race (Bernie Sanders) isn't their nominee.
From what I have seen thus far this cycle, and from what I saw in 2016, I can't help but be suspicious.
Sanders is fine with no news from Iowa, the next primary is in his backyard and he has nationwide name recognition.
Buttigieg on the other hand needs Iowa to be huge for him, and this fiasco certainly hurt that strategy.
If they released the vote totals on time and Bernie won, that would have given his campaign momentum, which could have lead (still might) to a NH blowout.
Instead, Pete got to "declare victory" twice -- night-of, and again after the 60% release. Now it really doesn't matter if they release the results and Bernie is shown to have won, because we're already multiple news cycles away from caucus night and most people aren't really paying attention, so it's going to be hard for Sanders to capture any momentum, if it's shown he has won. Pete, on the other hand, got a significant NH bump from the IA results in the latest polls.
I think the only way it's hurt Pete is through IDP incompetence, where to most Americans (who hate a cheater and love a conspiracy theory) it looks, for lack of a better term, extremely shady. It's also fired up Bernie's base of die-hards, who are now on the warpath (or even more so) for the early states
If the winning number of SDEs does flip to Sanders by the time they're all counted, though, that'll be pretty damning.
I'm currently on the "no conspiracy" train, since a caucus is pretty hard to fabricate.
Sanders may yet come out ahead when full results come out - the betting markets put it at 25%, so the theorists might yet be right that the delay hurt Sanders the most (not necessarily right about their theories, but I sympathise with the general level of paranoia - although an given theory probably isn't correct, I think those dismissing them all as crazy lack imagination).
Arguably, since by all accounts Sanders performed much better than Biden (who is seen as Sander's main competition, not Buttigieg), it's still relevant that the delay hurt well-performing candidates in Iowa (Sanders and Buttigieg) and benefited poorly performing candidates (Biden).
If you do not make your voice known, you will be out into the same camp as voter apathy, at which point why should those running care about you if you don't vote?
That said, I'll continue to support individual issues I care about, and I'll happily call my reps to tell them how they could earn my vote.
Our culture is good at creating very individualistic princes and princes. No compromise whatsoever. My way or the highway.
The correct approach is to run and compete, but the disparity in financial amplification created by the two established parties keeps anything from being able to take root.
That sure can be applied to a lot of things in this world.
If only Rico laws were applied to people who aren't a bit too tanned to be really white.