Early climate models successfully predicted global warming

nature.com

26 points·eaguyhn··5 comments

Limits to Growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth didn't try to predict specifics so much as find trends, which they did, like overshoot and collapse, the counterintuitive effects of technology and innovation, the importance of population, goals, and values.

Nonetheless, their Business As Usual model from 1972 is eerily accurate and it applies to more than just climate. This study https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/publications/research-pap... tracked predictions to 2014 and the Business As Usual model continues with reasonable accuracy.

That's not good news for its predictions for the next few decades, at least not if you like food and a stable human population.

My fear is that the models have been too conservative.

In any case, it should be clear by now that the truth doesn't matter unless it brings more money (companies) or career perspective (politicians).

To be honest, your fear is being realised since every couple of weeks or so, there's an 'X worse than previously thought' article about something.

My fear is being realized because the evidence is in plain sight: coral bleaching, ocean acidification impacting sea-life, record heat waves, etc.

Trivializing it by making my comment into nothing more than overreacting to tabloid journalism is insulting.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com