Astonishingly few people commenting seemed to have read the whole thing. The reason it will (supposedly/hopefully) be different next time is that management overhead, bureaucracy, and outsourcing are killing their software development. If they actually can cut through the red tape, then I don't see it as very far-fetched to say that they can come back as a mobile software shop. I've got a Maemo device (using it now; very capable, except the keyboard's a little cramped), and prefer it by a wide margin to my employer-issued iPhone or the Android device that I returned after getting this phone.
If I were a Nokia shareholder, I'd be voting for these guys for certain. Windows has consistently been unimpressive, and MeeGo feels a lot like a platform that has a lot of cool potential but is unpolished and has gotten too little love from its progenitor.