Clearly in the example above, you can afford to hire two sys admins to manage the bare metal servers (you can probably afford more, but 2 is the minimum that gives some peace of mind)
We had an application that was a glorified quiz engine and our customers would mass enrol and mass take the quizzes so the scaling that was offered by Azure made it a no brainer for us, specially as given the nature of our customers, quizzes would only take place during working hours, so we'd scale right down for half the day and scale up and out at peak times.
Total costs were about 1/2 of what we estimated for bare metal