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Comment by SlowRobotAhead | Hacker News Reader

Proper link if you aren’t in to clickbait: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004896972...!

> Using a retrospective prediction from a regression models, we estimate an 8.3% increase in external carapace dissolution over the last two decades and identified a set of affected OA-related sublethal pathways to inform future risk assessment studies of Dungeness crabs.

Bad, but it seems no one actually measured this decades ago and it would be nice to have that data vs retrospective prediction. I believe them of course, it would just be nice to have real data if they’re claiming 8.3% estimation and not a range with expected looser precision for their sampling efforts.

Edit: for clarity

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@dang this is a much better link

>> we estimate an 8.3% increase

> it would just be nice to have real data if they’re claiming exactly 8.3%

Point of fact, they don't claim "exactly" 8.3% -- they call it an estimate, and the notation indicates uncertainty -- read it as 8.3 ± 0.1%.

It is quite unlikely that they can claim that much precision.

"8.3" probably reads as more authoritative than ">8%".

Whatever the case, 8% should be deeply alarming. Just how many % indicates a crashing ecosystem, and mass famine? Much of the world depends on ocean catch to get enough protein.

Take a look at the graph: https://oceanacidification.noaa.gov/OurChangingOcean.aspx

~8.1% was not alarming 50 years ago, so why 8.3% should be alarming now? I would be more concerned about the curve slope and shape.

That graph shows ph, not %. And the seawater ph is decreasing over time. I think perhaps you've misread it?

> It is quite unlikely that they can claim that much precision.

Can you quantify that statement with any rigor?

The point is that 8% +/-1 is just as bad as 8.3% +/-0.1.

I think the point was more that your statement: "It is quite unlikely that they can claim that much precision." is non-obvious enough that it requires support.

And the article provides a link to nice graph one can extrapolate back or forward: https://oceanacidification.noaa.gov/OurChangingOcean.aspx

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