Can Monkeys Pick Stocks Better Than Experts?

The misconception here is that people trade stocks in shouting matches on the floor of the NYSE.

In reality, the vast majority of trading now happens in microseconds by algorithms. The race to proximity in the 90's led to all traders getting the same server space in the same room at the NYSE to avoid any time-delay advantage. Now there are algorithms making trillions of trades a day.

People shouting on the trade floor is largely an anachronism.

To invoke a term by Michael Lewis (Liar's Poker), "Big Swinging Dicks" are mostly just insider traders now, as the computers are doing all the work. We've seen this writ large with the current administration: huge movements in stocks before Tweets have been reported repeatedly. This isn't new, it's the way it works: connections make you rich.

I've been on the investment wagon for 30+ years, and fundamentals remain the same: diversify, buy and hold, buy index funds or low load funds, make steady contributions. You can't really beat that unless you want to start gambling (e.g., buying/selling stocks).

Can my "monkey" be Warren Buffett? A good many stock-pickers are bad at their core job. They peddle in buzzwords and bullsh$t. But that doesn't mean all stock pickers stink.

There is a distinction between self-declared make-believe experts and actual experts.

As long as you are putting in the work and you follow a sound method you can beat the market.

Of course, that sound method is always more than running a stock screener or backtest some random strategy. Do heavy-duty information discovery and track down how a company works and you can find information that allows you to select better than random.