Hacker News Reader

Comment by seibelj | Hacker News Reader

No one has proven that this virus is any more deadly than a bad flu. 3-4% of hospitalized cases is not absurd compared to the yearly flu. Very interesting, all of this

View on HN

a bad flu can kill millions

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

Do you think the Chinese governments (provincial and central) are overreacting then?

I think they might be deliberately using it as a fire drill, which seems like a good idea considering the size of their population.

They have actually done the exact opposite. They knew about this way back in December, the numbers they report are wauly understated and they have even arrested reporters and made them delete their footage.

China is all about showing a good image to the rest of the world and their own population, and this outbreak goes in the face of that.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lk5XkhUKMDM

Totalitarian sometimes work. Just watch ww2 in Color. Nazi worked and got France. It is just sometimes. When you do not have freedom of speech and media, this follow the leader would not work. Anyway. Last time we wait for the hot weather to kill this. And they did start to close down cities. We just hope the totalitarian plus the nature of people (just run say to HK) would not hurt too much until nature stop it.

Except the mortality rate is insignificant, it's just a novel virus with less serious consequences than the flu from what I've read.

The scale of the reaction and coverage seems entirely disconnected from its actual impact. Is there any point in wasting any resources at all in containing such a virus beyond just exercising your ability to do so?

We don't know the mortality rate, because you can't trust anything coming from China's government. It takes a certain amount of time for the virus to kill and that time hasn't passed yet.

A disease that makes you cough up blood, is highly mutable and can be spread for 2 weeks prior to experiencing symptoms is not to be dismissed as just the same as a flu.

There are many social media reports of dead patients not being included in the official tallies.

You cannot trust Chinese gov't numbers.

Don't trust China's government figures.

The CDC has a page up right now showing a 7% mortality rate for influenza on a weekly basis.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

"The percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza decreased from 7.1% to 6.7% and is below the epidemic threshold."

That's not mortality rate. You make it sound like 7% of those with flu will die. Instead it means that 7% of deaths are because of flu and pneumonia, which still seems high to me though

That says 7 percent of deaths are from influenza, not that 7 percent of people with influenza die.

It says 7% from influenza and pneumonia. Pneumonia is just a very common way for old people to kick the bucket these days.

Ah I see my mistake now. I'm not sure that statistic is as useful as the one I thought it was, though.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com