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Comment by noelsusman | Hacker News Reader

It hasn't reached that level of nonsense again. In 2006, the median price of a house was 5.1 times the median income. Today it's 4.4 times median income, which is high compared to most of recent history, but is actually lower than it was in 1955.

Nobody thinks SPY is going to keep increasing forever. The conventional wisdom is we're looking at a recession in the next 1-2 years.

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You know there's something seriously wrong with the state of the housing industry (how it's regulated, zoning, etc), when our only hope is to hope for a Recession or worse.

People have been saying a recession is 1-2 years away since 2012. Statistically, it's getting more likely this 1-2 year recession pans out with each passing year. But no one has a crystal ball.

No, statistically it's irrelevant. This is the the reverse gamblers fallacy. A lack of bad events does not make them more likely.

Economies don’t follow a random path with each year like the a ball with each spin of a roulette wheel. A driver of business cycles is accumulated malinvestment and suboptimal policy.

Another way to look at it is that a gambler can’t do anything to affect the roulette wheel, but a recession can be brought about or deepened by all sorts of human action.

The S&P 500 has more or less, always gone up, for its entire existence. From the late 50's to today, the CAGR was 9.97%. That's including the recessions.

It's now household income. So two vs one before.

Interesting, what's the source of your median house price to median income data?

https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-inco...

Thanks!

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