One thing Tesla doesn’t have is the lock in that Apple has. If you are using iPhoto, iWatch and iMessage, switching to another manufacturer is hugely disruptive.
I totally agree that Tesla’s software chops are light years ahead.
I totally agree that Tesla’s software chops are light years ahead.
When the EU settled on Combo 2, Tesla started shipping Model 3s with it as well as updating Superchargers.
The US market is a very different environment than Europe and still hasn't adopted a common standard. The 2020 Nissan Leaf ships with J1772 and CHAdeMO options which are incompatible with the CCS Combo 1 other automakers are shipping. That means a charging station needs to have at least 2 different connectors, 3 if it wants to offer the fastest possible charging because while J1772 chargers are compatible with CCS equipped cars, CCS Chargers are not backward compatible with J1772 vehicles.
Tesla owners are not locked into Superchargers and are able to charge at other chargers via adapters. All Teslas in the US come with a J1772 adapter, and you can purchase a CHAdeMO adapter.
Superchargers are also generally located along highways to facilitate long road trips, something most other EVs are incapable of even if the infrastructure existed.
Tesla sold more EVs in the US in 2019 than all other auto manufacturers combined. The next two best selling EVs (Leaf and Bolt) don't even share a common connector. Building out a charging network that's compatible with other EVs would only serve to benefit their competition. As it stands the Supercharger is a nonbinding value add for any Tesla owner.
It looks like the company as a whole averages a ~40% gross margin [1]. Tesla's appears to be closer to ~15%, with many highly negative quarters [2].
Of course, net income to revenue is probably more important to look at in this case. Apple's is consistently above ~20%. Tesla's has mostly been negative, and the highest it's ever been is around ~2%.
Tesla would need to sell roughly 10 times as many cars at the same margin to meet Toyota/Volkswagen/GM valuations. If Tesla were based on it's current financials, it would be valued at $5-$10Bn. It wouldn't be valued at $100Bn now if people thought it could be reasonably valued at $100Bn in the future. People must think it could reasonably be valued at $1T in 10 years.
For that to be true, Tesla would need to be selling 200% of cars on the planet. A lot of people think car sales have peaked. It's possible in 10 years there will be less cars sold. It's highly improbable there will be twice as many cars sold, and that all of them will belong to Tesla.
Here's one: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/10/02/ron-baron-tesla-could-...
Google "Tesla Trillion Dollar Company" and you can find dozens of predictions.
A 30% COGS is a benchmark for most hardware products and how much you can invest in software depends on how expensive your product is and how many you sell. Since Apple sells a lot at a premium price point, they've got a lot more room in their budget for software R&D. Capital equipment like cars, machinery, power plants, etc are a whole different beast however.
OTOH, if they were able to get margins back to 25%, these valuations would start to look a lot less crazy.
If you are not handy, it requires hiring an electrician to make the change (~$100-500)
This is the only thing that remotely justifies their current valuation.
If you expect them to crush it in China + monetize their install base via creating an app platform for 3rd party apps + get to self-driving.
People forget that EVs are going to likely be on the road a lot longer than ICEVs, due to lower wear-and-tear. Past battery capacity degradation, there isn't much to break.
Seems to map fairly well to monetization, which is essentially what drove mobile.
Ad targeting when you break a geofence? $$$
At a quarter-million miles, most people want something different. "It's falling apart" is an acceptable excuse. "It's running just fine, another three-quarter-million miles to go" not so much.
People always say this, but I'm a bit skeptical. I own a 13 year-old Toyota with 200k+ miles on it, and the things that break are more like suspension parts, wheel bearings, etc. I think drivetrains are pretty reliable at this point.
The vast majority of people take a picture with the standard camera app and never look at the pictures again. You don’t need a non-native app for that.
Since the first level implementation works fine, you're talking about a second level detail. Do you think this would nudge enough people towards using Google Photo to actually matter?
I very much doubt it.