Chart: Brexit Costs Nearly Match UK's Total EU Contributions | Hacker News Reader

Chart: Brexit Costs Nearly Match UK's Total EU Contributions

statista.com

34 pointslaktak59 comments

Remember that the UK's contributions weren't just going into a black hole, so this isn't a zero-sum game. The UK also received an enormous amount back for those contributions despite being a net contributor, such as EU project funding in deprived areas, access to the single market, a strong position in global trade deals as part of the EU negotiating team and so on. The sums are much, much worse if you take that into account.

What people keep on forgetting is that Leaving the EU was never about money. Micheal Caine said it best "I'd rather be a poor master than a rich slave".

£350 million a week for the NHS?

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/10/the-350m-line-on-the-b...

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/research-papers/peoples-stated-reasons...

> This report includes several different surveys and opinion polls asking Britons why they voted the way they did in the EU referendum. It identifies that the two main reasons people voted Leave were ‘immigration’ and ‘sovereignty’, whereas the main reason people voted Remain was ‘the economy’.

No mention of the Bus anywhere or the NHS. So no.

I agree, and I've said that elsewhere in the comments. Thing is, this is going to come back and bite many of the people who think they're voting for more freedom. Poverty doesn't make you free.

> Poverty doesn't make you free.

Incredibly true. People who have the fortune to believe that ‘personal choice’ reigns supreme can’t imagine what it’s like when you only have one choice.

Unfortunate analogy in a situation with two clear distinct choices though.

The UK isn't going to turn into a 3rd world country anytime soon and the Economy at the moment is still growing faster than Germany and is projected to continue after the 31st.

Where does the poverty angle come in?

By leaving the EU, where we were a net contributor, how is that going to make us poor?

Genuine question, I only ever saw that argument (with no data, I might add) from hardcore remainers like SNP.

These are just the figures so far. This doesn't take into account things that are yet to happen like losing access to the single market (proximity is a far better predictor of economic exchange than culture, so talk of trade deals with Australia and New Zealand need to be taken with a huge pinch of salt), withdrawal from EU trade deals which are going to take a long time to renegotiate piecemeal (and which we're unlikely to get on the same terms as a separate entity), etc. The UK government has recently made noises to the effect that they're not interested in regulatory alignment with the EU, which is harmful because they're our biggest trading partner. To be clear, the EU is going to suffer too, but nothing like as much as the UK.

I don't disagree that there will be ups and downs but money talks.

1 in every 7 German cars is bought in the UK. I couldn't find a price tag for that but it will be £Billions. Easily.

There will still be deals made across the EU with the UK... there is too much money at stake not to.

Well, then what about that

350 Million£ a week for the NHS bus the Brexiters were so proud of displaying?

If that's not about money I'm not sure what is.

Just because that's one thing that the campaign talked about, doesn't make it the reason that people chose to vote leave.

Ah, the notorious Bus of Lies.

Nobody I know who voted leave ever mentions the bus. Sure it was part of the "Leave Campaign" but that doesn't mean it is why people voted.

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/research-papers/peoples-stated-reasons...

Note the Bus or the NHS isn't mentioned.

But British had so much influence and power on EU and outside EU by being a member.

The narrative I've seen from the people I know who supported it is basically split 50/50 between not wanting to take orders from Brussels (even if we were at the table, making those rules) and just straight-up xenophobia.

I think the common thing about Brexit is that voting to leave is quite likely not based in any actual reason, but is a purely emotional reaction.

An emotional reaction that's certainly already screwed up my own future plans, so take that as my bias for remain.

> and just straight-up xenophobia.

This is tiring to keep seeing this constant smear repeated. Sure immigration was mentioned but having control over immigration isn't the same as xenophobia. I've lived in a few different countries and the UK generally isn't xenophobic.

> I think the common thing about Brexit is that voting to leave is quite likely not based in any actual reason, but is a purely emotional reaction.

Well I would disagree. There are plenty of reasons why (not taking orders from Brussels is a really good reason, especially after Article 11 and 13 were drafted and forced through the Parliament).

>especially after Article 11 and 13 were drafted and forced through the Parliament

Both the UK Labour and Conservative Parties supported those.

I don't classify it as a smear - it's true: control on immigration is, on varying levels, direct xenophobia. Most border policy is straight up prejudice against people based solely on the fact they aren't a citizen here, to different amounts based on the location they're coming from and the nature of their business in the receiving country.

Labelling people who voted to restrict border controls prejudiced against those who come from abroad isn't some horrific smear insult, it's merely stating the facts: they don't like "immigrant type X" and have acted accordingly.

I was also explicitly referencing my experience with those who I know who are outwardly Leave. Not once has any specific policy come up within their reasoning - broad feelings have been far and away the driver.

"The problem with a revolt against imaginary oppression is that you end up with imaginary freedom." -- https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/17/nul-po...

So I agree with you, it was never about money.

Using the hyper-partisan guardian opinion piece as evidence of anything is laughable. It is quite clear that many here don't want to understand those that voted Leave. Instead they are quite happy to build a straw-man.

I'm not really trying to use it as evidence of anything. You picked a citation, I picked another one. Furthermore, as mentioned, I agree with you on the reason not being money.

Regarding your other point, I honestly think there's nothing profound to understand but feel free to prove me wrong with concrete examples and no hand-waving or out-of-context citations.

Demagogues with agendas have existed for a long time, they are nothing new. So has scapegoating.

No-one in their right mind will claim that the EU is perfect, but the result of simplistically asking people to make a black-and-white decision about something so incredibly complex, and with so many unknowns, that almost no-one is in a position of fully understanding had the consequence of throwing the baby out with the water. And all because of a razor-thin-basically-within-uncertainty margin in the results.

Obviously, as laughable as this may be, it is a valid choice - and we will all have to live with its consequences.

I - for one - can't wait to get Scotland back in the EU.

If nobody can truly understand the EU how can you hold anyone or anything accountable? You've just made half of the sovereignty argument for me.

As for Scotland joining the EU. Even if Scotland does become independent (it won't), the EU wouldn't let an independent Scotland in.

> In order to join the EU you've got to have a budget deficit of 3% of GDP or less or be obviously (which allows for some fudging) moving in that direction. And Scotland, now that oil has plummeted, simply is not there. It's difficult, given the intertwining of British and Scottish accounts to get it exactly right but reasonable estimates have the Scottish alone budget deficit at 8 to 10% of GDP.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/06/26/the-prob...

Scotland cannot sustain itself at all on its own. The SNP run Scotland poorly (and it is in their interest to do so) so it would have to go under massive austerity the moment they go independent.

> If nobody can truly understand the EU how can you hold anyone or anything accountable? You've just made half of the sovereignty argument for me.

Hmm that's not really what I wrote: the decision was about leaving the EU, so the not understanding part referred to "leaving the EU", not to the EU itself. You are still at square one, argument-wise.

As for Scotland, everyone knows that countries that want to join has to comply with common rules. Other countries had to go through the same problems. If they want to comply, I am sure they will find a way. When that happens, they will be welcome back in the EU.

True, but also if you ask those people what 'EU' laws they want to revert after Brexit, all you will hear back is 'Its matter of principles and not exact examples'.

Yep, and now those deprived areas, which mostly voted for Brexit are yelling and screaming that London should cover what they lose in EU contributions.

Best of luck with that one.

They were literally raking up some of the most valuable return contributions, specifically those in research. From the perspective of science and high tech investment, there could be no worse long term move than Brexit.

I have quite a few friends doing scientific research in the UK, many of them highly regarded in their fields, who were already being dropped from EU-funded projects more than a year ago. Research in the UK is going to become a real shitshow over the next few years.

Calling this a "chart" is a bit of a stretch. Several sentences and a picture of two flags.

There are already comments on this post about leave voting people having no brain or being stupid. This is exactly the kind of rhetoric that only makes the situation worse! Let’s not forget that over half the country voted for it, calling these voters stupid only makes the divisions in what has become a divided country worse.

We have to except the decision has been made and move forward. Continuing to argue about who was right and wrong only holds us back, and I say that as a passionate remain voter. Let’s make the best of the new direction the country has taken!

I hold the Remain campaign in as much contempt as the Leave one personally. You don't get anywhere by complacent insults, and what did we get - people rebelled against complacency and being insulted. In record numbers.

"Making the best of it" though is a bitter-sweet pill. There are a lot of futures that have been made much more difficult/impossible. You can't "make the most" of something you're no longer allowed to do. Humans don't tend to like regression to a shittier state, that's one of the reasons climate change is such a tough nut to crack too.

I take this as a proof that it is an immense Monty Python sketch.

"Let's not bicker and argue about who killed whom: this is supposed to be a happy celebration!" ;)

I came away with a very negative reaction to this infographic. I mean visually, not the data. Some how I come away feeling very underwhelmed. The embedded flags, which are at the same height, draw my eye and make it harder to gauge the relative heights of the bars. Also, there is too little white space between the subheading and the graphic. Same for the footnote. I'm far from a competent graphic designer, but I think Statista could have done better with this one.

Brexit isn't about economics, macro-economics rarely has an influence at the individual level. It's the story that wraps around the numbers and emotion that's important.

That's why Leave won. Not about net contributions, billions for science experiments most people don't understand. It won on the back of "money for more nurses to take care of your nan", "control of our borders to stop illegals taking your mate Dan's job".

So for an anecdote: if the UK pulls out of the EU data-roaming regulations, I'd have spent more on mobile data in just one holiday last year than my yearly total EU contribution from my tax (and that's with a very fair operator travel plan).

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