How the internet helped crack the Astros' sign-stealing case
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This is, in my opinion, a watershed moment here for how Baseball is going to deal with technology. After the Moneyball "revolution" lots of people, both in the game and casual fans, talked about how technology would again "revolutionize" the sport[0]. Things like player evaluations and injury prediction + prevention were what was mostly talked about (this was back in ~2014-2015 or so). There really hasn't been much talk about this since then, as far as I can tell, or it's been kept as a trade secret by teams. What's happened with this Astros scandal is something else entirely. This was not the future of the game we wanted, and there will need to be a philosophical discussion had in short order about what we're going to allow in the future (what they did was not).
Complicating all of this is that Houston winning the last game of the season in 2017 was largely viewed as a "victory" for the stats nerds over the traditionalists[1], and was predicted in 2014[2]. So the idea that the "technology" they used to do this wasn't just learning things other teams couldn't about their own players, but essentially a gimmick to steal signs not only casts a shadow on the integrity of the game but also calls into question the methodology itself to a certain extent - though to be honest I think the argument is pretty much over at this point on stats vs traditionalists.
[0]https://www.si.com/mlb/2014/07/08/billy-beane-technology-wil...
[1]https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/10/24/houston-astros-sports-illu...
MLB. FIFA. OOC. ... let me know when you can see a difference, lol.
Barry Bonds still isn't in the Hall of Fame. Neither is Roger Clemons. The institution seems to be reacting appropriately in my book.
>The shakedowns of cities...
Okay, you got me there I guess. Which stadium are you thinking of though? My understanding of the Braves stadium deal(most recent stadium deal that comes to mind) is that the team is required to pay off the county's bonds raised over some period of time (I'm not from Atlanta, so this is just my recollection). I suppose Target Field in Minneapolis was kind of a raw deal. I can meet you half way on thinking that a lot of these projects are in fact crap for local communities, but I think we've seen this phenomenon in the NFL more than MLB. Teams like the Rams and the Chargers basically held their local governments hostage for a new stadium and when they didn't get one they moved. This hasn't happened in MLB for a long time.
For example: https://youtu.be/W1pJRRJntUo
What the Astros did was zoom in a camera from the outfield to see this and feed that video straight into the dugout. The person in the dugout with the feed would bang a garbage can (or something) to signal audibly to the person up at bat. Knowing what pitch is coming is a massive advantage for a batter.
It really has to happen in a matter of a second or two in order to work.
A "sign" is a hand signal the catcher makes to the pitcher, indicating which pitch (fastball / curveball / whatever) the pitcher will throw. If the pitcher wants to throw something else, he shakes his head, and the catcher signals something different. Repeat until the pitcher is happy.
The pitcher's rejection is visible to everyone, but the catcher's signal is hidden.
"Stealing signs" does not refer to stealing the key that translates between hand signals and pitch types, so that you can tell by looking at the signal what pitch will be thrown. That's considered obvious. (I mention this because I assumed that's what "stealing signs" would mean.)
Instead, "stealing signs" refers to looking at the catcher when he signals, so that you see the signal. Interpreting it is then up to you. Oddly, this is explicitly legal if you do it by having a runner on second base, but illegal by any other means.
The electronics involved are a small camera mounted somewhere aimed at the catcher. The banging noise is a simple code -- one bang for signal A; two bangs for signal B; three bangs for signal C... the function is to communicate the signal from the guy off in the bowels of the stadium viewing the camera feed, to the batter who wants to know what pitch to prepare for.
As has been said, teams have been stealing signs since the beginning of the sport and it’s an understood or “gentleman’s” rule that it’s acceptable — as long no technology is used and it’s not blatant. However, teams have used body buzzers, buzzers and signals buried by the bases and similar electric and radio devices for close to 100 years or more now, since electricity itself became ubiquitous.
I think they went with the trash can banging because it was somewhat low tech, and maybe less likely or believable for people to pick up on.
Pitchers switch between straight fastballs and slower curveballs and a pitch called a change up that looks like a fastball delivery but comes across the plate slower.
Obviously if the hitter knew what to expect he’d do a lot better. So the astros had a camera that was looking at the signs and feeding them to the dugout. Then when they knew that a good pitch to hit was coming, they’d make a banging sound. It’s not actually super sophisticated.
You’re actually allowed to steal signs from like a runner on second — you’re not allowed to use a camera to do it.
They were hopping off the center field feed. This is the feed that viewers at home see when a pitch is thrown. If someone spent the time at home, you could catalog all the signs between a pitcher and a catcher just fine.
They were looking for offspeed pitches, i.e changeups. This is a pitch used to fake out a batter through a speed change. Most standard pitches are thrown in the 85+ mph range, including the breaking (curve, slider) ball types. Fastballs, with current players, are in the mid-90s+ with a few throwing 100. A changeup is significantly (relatively) slower than these pitches so a batter will swing much earlier than normal and completely miss the ball. However, if the player guesses right or is told this particular pitch is coming, it’s pretty much like hitting a ball off a tee, for all intents and purposes.
But anyone behind the pitcher can of course see the sign, and after seeing a few tens of pitches at most can figure out which sign corresponds to which pitch. Knowing what pitch is coming is a significant advantage to the hitter.
It’s legal for a runner on second to watch the catcher and convey those signs to the pitcher, but in MLB it’s strictly illegal to use “technology” - meaning, mostly, optics or electronics.
The dugout then used the drum banging method to convey that information to the batter.
In baseball, the pitcher stands in the middle of a diamond-shaped field. They throw the ball towards the opposing team's batter, who tries to hit it. The pitcher's goal is to get the ball past the opposing batter to the catcher, who is squatting on the ground behind the batter.
The catcher, having full view of all the players and being close to the batter, can opt to signal to the pitcher how best to throw the ball to get it past the batter. For example, they may raise 1 finger to throw it as fast as possible ("fastball"), 2 to make it _seem_ look a fastball but actually slow it down ("changeup"), 3 to curve the ball, etc. The catcher does this such that only the pitcher has a good view of it. This is called a "sign".
It's legal for the opposing team to try to see what the catcher is signaling and inform the batter, but not to do so with electronic equipment. The Astros were using video cameras to get a close look at the catcher's signs, then banging a metal drum to inform the batter of what kind of pitch was being signaled.
The article has an embedded Tweet which has a good video demonstrating all this.
An opposing team can "steal signs" by looking at the catcher while he's giving his signs and then somehow relay that information to the batter. That way the batter knows what type of pitch is coming. Usually the information is given to the batter by some other type of signal, that's what "banging on the garbage can" was, a signal that a specific type of pitch was coming. (In this case they were signaling if a pitch was going to be an offspeed pitch)
So basically what happened was Astros set up a camera in the outfield aimed at the opposing team's catcher. The catcher would signal for, for example, a breaking ball. Astros employee viewing video feed would see this and then bang on the garbage can to indicate to the batter that the pitch would be offspeed.
It's important to know that "stealing signs" the old fashioned way (without cameras/technology) is legal and part of the game. This is why catchers will give multiple signs when runners are on base, because base runners may be able to look at the catcher while he's giving his signs and relay information to the batter. When the catcher is using multiple signs there's an agreement beforehand between the catcher and the pitcher which of the multiple signs is the "real" sign.
There's a Wikipedia page on sign stealing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sign_stealing
https://courses.csail.mit.edu/6.857/2018/project/mlancast-sa...
I'm not sure however, that the internet really helped crack the case. Th article shows that the internet came to similar conclusions as the real MLB investigation.
There are conferences where people go and present research and other cool things they do with the data. MLB sends people to them and most teams do as well. If you present something cool, you'll have half a dozen teams asking you for an interview.
[1] https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=62a1c77c...
I’m disappointed that the Astros lost this year but I don’t feel compelled to find a reason the Nationals beat us this year. At the end of the day our pitchers failed(ahem Verlander) and our batters couldn’t hit the superior pitchers in dc. Ironically the “cheaters” couldn’t cheat their way to a second victory. This seems like another case of Twitter and social media amplifying things that don’t matter.
As a Pirates fan, I feel you about the salary issue, but everyone is playing by the same rules, so it's not cheating for a team to spend more. It's a pretty orthogonal issue.
That is an assumption. We don't know all the facts yet. Some are suggesting the camera could have been nothing more than a smartphone and there is a source from within the Astros org that say some of the players wore electronic buzzers under their shoulder to signal the call to them. There is no reason to rule out signals were known on the road as well.
> 2) what is the end game here?
Stop cheaters from winning titles and saving the sport from ruin like cheating did to the sport of boxing.
> 3) do you think they’re the only team?
Probably not but both existing and former Astros speaking up tells us Astros were doing it at an unprecedented level.
> 4) what rules were broken?
First of all sign stealing using technology goes all the way back to 1876. Illegal sign stealing involves mechanical or electronic technology; the rules regarding this have become more stringent over time and continue to evolve. This is also why an 8 second delay was added to the broadcast feed.
> 5) is it wrong for a base runner to scream change-up if they are on 2nd base?
Screaming anything while the opposing pitcher is about to throw I suspect is against the rules but stealing and signalling the signs in other ways is permitted. This is typically done by the base runner using closed fist or open hands.
> I don’t think a huge advantage was had here.
The Astros obviously thought it was enough of an advantage to break the rules to do it. The Astros went from dead last in the AL in strikeout rate in 2016 to 1st in '17 and their strikeout to walk ratio was an extreme outlier compared to the rest of the league.
> Ironically the “cheaters” couldn’t cheat their way to a second victory.
Ironic how? Teams were onto them by then. Once you know your opponent is stealing your signs you can use that against them.
I have too hard disagree on this. Knowing the pitch is a huge advantage in baseball.
The goal is to win, by all means necessary. Like war.
I'm almost 60 now, but in my twenties I thought "why don't teams have people in the stands to do just this, steal the signs."
I was a phreaker back then and always wanted to call the Twins dugout just to see if I could.
Four people have already lost their jobs over this, additionally, Astros were fined $5 million and lost four draft picks.
I wonder if that would be considered cheating though If they only used past performance and not real time signal stealing.
The question is ... should we?
I'm old school about this game and my answer is emphatically "no".
I'm sure coaches have some kind of tell when they get excited about calling a play-action deep ball after the run game got 3 straight first downs.
Ideas like yours take all the fun out of play and ruin it for everyone else. We all know we can build machines to do things better than humans, but so what? It's the uncertainty and imperfection and second guessing that makes a game enjoyable to watch or play in the first place.
Someone who knows the rules better might answer?
I assume the pitcher has to be registered in the team and as such has to be human.
If you have a pitcher set it off, one assumes it's not regulated equipment. If you have a disability it still has rules around what you can use.
I'd be interested to know though. The Last Boy Scout does kinda ask this question, that's why it's such an amazing opening scene.