Hidden Dangers of the Great Index Fund Takeover
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
Things may have changed
Something like create a super-voting share class for active investors and regular stock for the index funds?
They don't preserve the right incentive structure and remove escape valves the regular stock holders should enjoy. I thought the original idea here is to let the index investors direct the fund how to vote with their portion of the index's stock. A pretty neat idea that de-fangs much of the incentive risk if the index fund management goes rogue or an activist investor tries something.
www.yourstake.org
How do you get the fund to vote on the investors behalf ?
However, this becomes a bigger issue as index funds gain additional scale. As shares owned by index funds further surpasses the number of shares demanded for borrowing, index funds will be left with more shares to vote.
This will likely reduce shorting costs and increase total shares sold short somewhat, but likely not enough to compensate for the additional index fund ownership (i.e., index funds will net still have more shares for voting).
The average index fund owner is also not likely be spending time looking over the voting possibilities of 500 companies and aligning votes to decrease competition between them, even if that was possible. They just wouldn't vote on issues. The problem is that three funds can decided to vote on policies that reduce competition between companies and that they are big enough for the votes to matter.
Transferring votes to the underlying owners of the fund would in reality likely just cause those votes not to be cast. It is similar to just saying that the funds can't vote, but doesn't disenfranchise people who really want to vote and still gives all those shares the index funds own possible power.
We're all worried about companies doing things to compete that are not in the interest of society, right? Less competition equals less (fewer?) externalities. Why even have companies in the first place if competition is simply always a good thing? Why was Eddie Lampert's clashing departments at Sears (supposedly) a disaster?
This is somewhat addressed in the article. One of the criticisms is that index founds don't do enough, resulting in more power to the CEO and less oversight. Giving voting power to individual owners would reduce engagement even further, giving even more power to the CEO. There might be some ways to improve this (let investors transfer voting power to e.g. non-profit organisation who vote for them) it's unclear if this would not simply shift the problem
This seems to be happening with ETFs
Yes, but that's consistent with the passive philosophy at the heart of index investing. I was surprised that index funds had an active interest in anything beyond reducing fees to customers.
The problem is that this isn't really what the stock market is for. It has been turned into this infinite liquidity machine where ownership churns rapidly when the "point" is owning a business, stewardship of your asset, slow turnover (there isn't an easy solution because this is largely a supply situation, if you create a savings system that is based on the value of the stock market...it is hard not to end up here).
Btw, the issue with corporate governance is far broader than this too. Even before index funds, the system was totally fucked. You had boards stocked full of know-nothings with no stake in the company. Managers were already totally unaccountable, now even more so (this is why activism is taking off, the level of corporate waste/overpaying for executives is staggering).
What if the algorithm Vanguard uses was open sourced and could be self-hosted by independent investors?
Where each investor owns their portfolio outright and adjustments to the portfolio are made automatically by a free index manager bot that runs the simple algorithm an index fund manager like Vanguard would.
Why wouldn't something like that work?
I've heard AI trading has done very poorly as the system isn't predictable, it's people making decisions in ways which can become self fulfilling prophesies.
Algorithms when distributed would also fall victim to the fastest person benefiting the most
They invest in companies that make up an index. When a company enters the index they buy units in that company, when a company leaves the index they sell those units.
So have humans, which is one reason index funds exist.
But fractional share ownership is not widely popular and would require an aggregator anyway.
Handling stocks when they move in and of the index without spiking the price is a finely calibrated, high skill trading desk action.
All that being said, I’m optimistic someone can come along and find a way to shake the industry up. The status quo is great for the investment industry and pretty shit for everyone else. Tale as old as time.
Also each investor already owns their portfolio outright... it is simply housed at the investment company. There is an absolute avalanche of regulation making that not just desirable but necessary. To remove a brokerage house from this equation would first require the complete and utter destruction of the global economic system (highly unlikely).
Every investor has the ability to choose funds crafted based on moral guidance or active management, which would spread out voting power more than it currently is. People are by and large not choosing that option at the moment.
If absolute rebalancing was required in an S&P 500 index fund, there would not be enough liquidity in the market for some of the smaller of the 500.
It’s all been fine and well during a bull market, but a concern is that “index” funds have huge amounts of synthetic holdings that are untested in a rout.
Roboadvisors do actually offer this if you have enough money. The only advantage AFAIK is being able to tax loss harvest the greater volatility from individual securities.
And this has already been invented. It is called hub-and-spoke, you generally see this with small CTAs and the like where there is a central portfolio with trades mirrored into separate accounts...it works but it is unnecessary, and costly. Another example of is are those awful portfolio mirroring services (eToro is one I think).
Btw, the thing that you are saying is "free" is where all the cost is. Yes, it would be great if everything was just "free" and people would do things for me for no money...but that isn't realistic. Some companies do just provide the "investment" side without all the low-level trading/account management/customer-facing stuff but it usually isn't attractive to do so for individual investors...this is basically what the big pension fund consultants do.
Marketing to individual investors is utterly hellish. It is expensive and the money you obtain is usually pretty worthless. If you are actually have investment talent, it is a terrible financial decision. You can spend hours pitching for pocket change with retail investors or you can make the same in a few seconds with an institution.
It already is "open sourced". Vanguard precisely discloses what's in each of their funds already [0].
The issue with independent investors perfectly replicating the securities underlying the index funds is that the vast majority of investors simply don't have enough capital to replicate the underlying components of the fund. Meaning, the typical investment amount of a randomly chosen investor cannot buy enough shares in proportion to each other to be as diversified as a massive $100+ billion fund. That's before discussing the issues with maintaining a balanced portfolio.
> Where each investor owns their portfolio outright and adjustments to the portfolio are made automatically by a free index manager bot that runs the simple algorithm an index fund manager like Vanguard would.
If you had enough capital and trusted such a bot enough, it's not hard. But the vast majority of people will never have enough capital.
[0]: See about 40% of the way through this PDF for the securities behind Vanguard's Total Stock Market Index Fund: https://personal.vanguard.com/funds/reports/q850.pdf?2210151...
Given $1000 to invest, I can't fathom trying to individually own an average of $2 worth of each of 500 companies. And that doesn't even begin to cover it. Because the S&P 500 is market cap weighted, you would need to own $45.70 of AAPL, the top company. I don't know what the 500th stock is, but you'd probably need to own about $0.10 of it.
Even if trades themselves are "free", you still need to pay something like $0.13 per trade in SEC fees. So you are paying about a 100% commission on each of the smallest stocks you buy. And then another 100% commission when those stocks fall out of the index and you sell.
Just buy SPY. There are many good reasons that it has grown to $307 billion in net assets.
As far as I can tell, this is a fairly minor advantage, and if I wasn't using a robo-advisor, i certainly wouldn't be managing the basket directly just for this ability.
A lot of the issues that were brought up have to do with fees associated with purchasing all the stocks and the fact that you would have to buy very small fractional shares. Certainly big issues today but they don't sound like showstopper problems to me.
And to the folks criticizing my lazy use of the term "open source" - I apologize. I should know better using that phrase on hacker news!
To clarify: clearly the market weighted index process is a well known and very simple algorithm. What I meant by "open source" was a tool that can employ that market weighting process and handle all of the financial transactions necessary to execute all of the trades.
The fintech entrepreneur can carefully paint the picture of the dangers of the big 3 while advocating for smaller index funds for a smaller set of investors.
This smaller set of investors can have stocks based on their individual goals and interests. You just duplicate this over a lot more funds. The returns won’t be as high initially but if the entrepreneur can convince customers that this must be done it should help spurn new markets towards sustainability or carbon reduction etc.
Edit: plz tell me if I totally misunderstood the article.
Passive index investing might not be perfect, but it seems to be the least worst option when evaluating fund costs and risk adjusted returns, and we’re aways off from significant second order effects.
> She might want Coca-Cola to take big risks to crush Pepsi, and invest capital in new products and markets to do so. An investor who holds both, on the other hand, would prefer that Coke and Pepsi avoid price wars.
So the way we can solve this problem is to outlaw shares ownership of competing companies? Seems like a fair solution.
This just isn't practical. What if I'm invested in Big Bank and Big Tech Co. but then Big Tech Co. creates a wallet app and credit card -- do I have to sell my ownership in one of these companies?
As an investor I definitely want to own companies that compete because I don't know which one is going to prevail. Owning just one of the companies doesn't really fix the problem either -- if I own only Pepsi does that mean I would want them to get into a price war with Coke?
No, company would have to split itself (create separated business entity) so you would have to sell your competing part of the company.
Such a change can also solve problem of companies using their dominant/monopolistic position in one business area to get unfair advantage in another.
> As an investor I definitely want to own companies that compete because I don't know which one is going to prevail.
That's the problem article describes! Such behavior reduces competition and hurts customers:
>> This line of research began with a 2014 paper about competition among U.S. airlines that quietly shook the fund industry and the antitrust world. José Azar, an economist at the University of Navarra in Barcelona, along with Martin Schmalz and Isabel Tecu, showed that airline ticket prices were 3% to 7% higher because big funds owned stakes in so many airlines.
This just isn't practical though. Apple/Google/Amazon/etc would have to be broken up for example.
> That's the problem article describes! Such behavior reduces competition and hurts customers.
Hedging shouldn't be illegal though. Let me buy both cows and chickens -- even though I don't know which people will want to eat later.
So happened with Standard Oil and others after antitrust laws were introduced. Was their split bad? Or impractical?
Don't you as a customer want Google and other companies to be splitted to AdWords, GoogleSearch, YouTube, Android, Waymo companies?
How about categories that aren't cut and dry? Lets say the tech company develops an AI tool that banks could apply to track delinquent accounts. And a bank develops a regular tool to do the same? Is this something that warrants splitting your business? Do both split or just one of them? which one?
How do you police this? What about small companies? What about international companies? What about public funds that hold a bunch of companies?
I'm sorry but while there is clearly a problem to be solved, what you proposed is definitely not the solution.
IMHO there shouldn't be Apple/Amazon/Google/IBM companies as they are today. I want Google and other companies be splitted to AdWords, GoogleSearch, YouTube, Android, Waymo companies. And they should not use their dominant/monopolistic position in search/ads areas to get unfair advantage in other areas.
So you would have to choose your investment between Android/Apple/WinMobile OS, AdWords/AdMob ads, Waymo/Cruise cars, Google/Yahoo/DuckDuckGo search, YouTube/Vimeo videos.
Is it? Article says that it can be bad for customers:
>> José Azar, an economist at the University of Navarra in Barcelona, along with Martin Schmalz and Isabel Tecu, showed that airline ticket prices were 3% to 7% higher because big funds owned stakes in so many airlines.
> So the way we can solve this problem is to outlaw shares ownership of competing companies? Seems like a fair solution.
Nobody cares about Pepsi and Coca-Cola. Coca-Cola and Apple aren't competing, so if Coca-Cola can somehow be in the same index as Apple, and Apple gets 2x the return as Coca-Cola (which it does), which is what really makes the index look good against an average active picker (who doesn't pick Apple), it's a moot point who's allowed to own which shares in competing companies.
There are two real stories about indices. The first is [1] -- sorting the huge individual winners into different indices so that crappy companies, like Comcast and AT&T, can ride up on the demand for the index they are part of. Then there's [2] -- that most demand for individual stocks is the corporations themselves.
When you buy an individual stock versus an index with that stock, you're really making two bets: (1) a bet that there are an excess of individual stock pickers for this stock than for the indices it is part of, and (2) a bet on how much cash a company can get from consumers (even if it is a B2B company) to spend on buybacks in the long term. When you buy the index, you are betting that an industry or corporate class (e.g. large cap companies) are going to sort winners into the index more favorably and claim large amounts of consumer cash from outside that industry / low camp & mid cap stocks. [3]
There are negative trending industries! See S&P Oil and Gas Exploration. The article is talking about Coca-Cola and Pepsi, which do not create new products, they are marketing companies, it isn't about prices at all for them, it is such an utterly dumb example. She should be talking about two fracking companies, whose stock performance is extremely sensitive to oil prices.
The opposite of what the article thinks is happening: people are exiting common ownership of the companies (e.g. the S&P Oil and Gas Exploration index) that, as common owners, they have the most to gain from anti-trust (e.g. agreeing on a price for gas and oil).
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communication_services_sector_... [2] https://thesoundingline.com/sp-500-buybacks-now-outpace-all-... [3] there are low and mid cap indices, but nobody ever talks about those outside of trade journals
Your suggestion is for people to take big risks and put all their eggs in a few baskets. Not only is this totally opposed to why people make multiple investments, but doing so could make the market more volatile because any fluctuation or current event could encourage people to suddenly "switch sides".
What happens if one of these companies goes down, and with it, a need to liquidate 8% of Apple in a single day?
This sounds like a government. Maybe we’ll see voting for representatives and parties.
This concern is valid but I believe it only prevents price movement once a much larger majority of the market is passively managed.
For a personal example from the UK one of my actively managed investment trusts sold out of banks before most of the share price crash happened a few years ago.