Hacker News Reader

Comment by cevn | Hacker News Reader

> For fuel prices, I'm using today’s nationwide average gasoline price of $2.59 per gallon and $0.28 per kWh that Tesla charges at its Supercharger stations.

OK, but you could use a more accurate number, the price people pay at their homes (Most rarely supercharge). A quick google shows thats 12c per hour in the US (I pay 8 cents.)

Starting with "incorrect" (biased) assumptions will get you to the wrong place

View on HN

> In that scenario, the cost of charging your Tesla Model 3 is therefore zero. In the Toyota Camry LE hybrid it’s $0.05 per mile. How long would it take you to make up for the Toyota’s $11,805 up-front price advantage?

> For the average American who drives 1,000 miles per month, $0.05 per mile is $50 per month, or $600 per year. Divide $11,805 with $600 and you get almost 20 years.

At least the article offers a generous alternative for comparison.

The average american doesn't drive a toyota camry hybrid.

I'm not sure of your point.

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2019-us-vehicle-sales-figures-...

The average American probably drives a fill-sized half-ton, pickup truck or small/medium SUV, or a relatively vanilla sedan from Toyota or Honda (including the Camry.)

Comparing the price of the cars and then talking about payback periods for "fueling" only makes sense if the _only_ difference between the cars is the source of power. That's obviously not the case, so the comparison is meaningless.

It's meaningless depending on what you're trying to predict.

In this case, no doubt they want to "predict" that the market for expensive electric cars will be limited. Of course the current owners of a Tesla are homeowners with garages that care more about having a fancy car than about the total cost of ownership.

But at least in the sedan market, the top 4 sellers (in the U.S.) are the Toyota Camry, Honda Civic, Toyota Corolla, and Honda Accord. More people want pickup trucks and SUVs, but for those that just prefer a sedan, they just want something that works and is affordable.

Given all that, the total cost of ownership is a better tool for comparison, but obviously this article only looks at fuel costs and opportunity costs, without including other relevant variables.

AFAICT, the 0.05/mile for the Camry doesn't include any costs other than the fuel. Teslas are insanely low maintenance, and while Toyotas tend to be low maintenance as well, there WILL be fluid changes and others (belts, plugs, etc) that the Tesla won't. Source: I have a Tesla and 2 Toyotas. :-)

Yes. I'm not saying the articles conclusion (that fuel costs are why electric vehicle market share is growing slowly) is accurate. Just that an argument only about the cost of electricity isn't really sufficient to dispel the premise.

Total cost of ownership is a lot more than purchase price and fuel cost. You and I agree on that.

Sort of, but if they're going to drag in purchase price differential, they need to add in other total cost of ownership figures, like repairs, as well as list the feature delta. Most of that cost difference is in the features included in the car other than the EV portion, so it's disingenuous to use the full value in comparing fuel costs.

I doubt people are buying a Tesla because they think it's cheaper long term, but fuel cost is part of that decision.

He specifically addresses that point when he says most people live in apartments without dedicated superchargers. I'm not sure how accurate that statement is but it makes sense to me. I haven't seen very many apartment buildings with electric chargers in my area, if any.

This is a ridiculous assumption. In the US, 63% of units (including rental units) include a garage or carport, and the majority of Americans live in a detached unit. That's an environmental problem of its own, but reduces the friction associated with this kind of last-meter infrastructure.

EDIT: regarding apartment buildings, in California, if a lease includes a parking spot the landlord is legally required to allow the tenant to install a car charging station at their spot.

Garage, fine. How many car ports have electrical power?

Very often, usually for lighting.

... and garage door openers. :-)

A carport by definition doesn't have a door - it's a zero- to three-wall structure, usually adjacent to a house, that protects a car from rain and snow, but that's it. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carport

Agreed, I misread the parent. :-)

Why are we talking about "most people" instead of "most car owners" (since the car ownership rate for urban apartment dwellers is much lower than that of suburban home owners). Seems like the author is just trying to justify a tenuous assumption.

Technically he says a large #, not most. But I think its still a problem with the article, as what is a "large #"? And even within that subset, there are interesting variations. Some of the local apartments have "free" charging as part of the lease with quite a few charging locations available. If I were planning an electric car purchase and needed an apartment, it'd be pretty easy for me to self-select one of those, even though they are the minority right now.

My house gets on- and off-peak usage rates, so if I charge at night I get a better rate. My last bill had an on-peak rate of $.0886, but the off-peak rate was $.0327. So it's even better if I set the timer and only charge after a certain time.

The Tesla lets you set a preferred charging time, so you can just plug in and it will charge off peak in the normal case. You can then override that if you need to charge now.

Glad you read all the way to the third bullet point, but next time why not go for four?

Reply on news.ycombinator.com