Comment by lionhearted | Hacker News Reader

Comment by lionhearted | Hacker News Reader

True story, three nights ago at a bar in Saigon:

Friend of mine: Mubarak is sharp. That motherfucker has been hated for a long time, but is still in power... he'll weather this, he'll still be running the country next year.

Me: I don't know dude, the city is literally on fire. Has any revolution ever hit this point and had the leader keep control?

Him: They're rioting. It'll get settled out. Besides, Mubarak's got the military.

Me: Does he? Really?

Him: Well, if you think he'll be out of power, put your money where your mouth is. 100 bucks says, Mubarak is still in power at the end of this year.

Me: I don't know dude, I guess I don't know as much about this as you do...

Him: I don't know much. But I think he's got it. What do you say, 100 bucks?

Me: Well, what's "in power"?

Him: He's still got the title President on December 31st.

Me: In Egypt, not in exile?

Him: In Egypt. He's still president, and in Egypt.

Me: And no foreign occupying army stabilizing - no U.N. peacekeepers or transition force.

Him: That wouldn't happen, America has the securi -- okay, fine, yes, no foreign forces. So the wager is - Mubarak has the title of President on December 31st, is in Egypt, and there's no foreign troops occupying.

Me: Okay, I'm going to go with history here. You can break riots earlier, but once they hit this point it's over...

Him: We'll see. I want that hundred bucks in December.

Me: I'm good for it. You're on.

We shook on it. I'll take him out to a nice dinner with some of the money.

Point for your friend.

Long before this happened a US government cable analyzed Egypt and said that the military would do little to protect Mubarak as long as their economic interests were not threatened. Right now the military is facing major disruption to its economic interests as long as the protests continue. But if they transition to a new government, they can reduce the disruption.

Now I can just see you saying, Economic interests? What economic interests. They are a military! Which is entirely reasonable, but wrong. The Egyptian military is somewhere between 1/3 to 1/2 of Egypt's economy.

Why? Well when the Camp David accords brought about peace, Egypt no longer needed such a big military. But they didn't want to make all of those men go into the private sector at once, that could destabilize the country. So they found jobs for them. For example lots of wonderful beaches no longer needed to be filled with military bases to repel a possible Israeli attack, so the military removed the bases, and built tourist resorts instead. Which they ran.

So Mubarak is out. He can't protect the military's commercial interests. Whoever and whatever replaces him is fine as long as the military interests are maintained. The changes can be extensive, so long as the country goes back to work and the military is free to return to making money.

> Now I can just see you saying, Economic interests? What economic interests. They are a military! Which is entirely reasonable, but wrong. The Egyptian military is somewhere between 1/3 to 1/2 of Egypt's economy.

Reminds me of China.

>so the military removed the bases, and built tourist resorts instead. Which they ran.

Any sources for this? The Sinai peninsula did not have many military bases (certainly not Egyptian ones) on the coastline. Are you referring to another area?

There are military checkpoints like every few kilometers on the sinai peninsula. Quite disruptive to have to get questioned 30+ times in a 7 hour journey from Sharm El' Sheik to Cairo

I know the military checkpoints - I spent some of my childhood there and still visit every few years. But these aren't "military bases turned beach resorts".

Here is a source for you: http://www.vpr.net/npr/133501837/

I don't know where the resorts are in question. But the military is certainly running some popular tourist resorts now..

Gaaah, Seb!

The whole dialogue can be summarized as "someone bet me he will still be in power a year from now".

> The whole dialogue can be summarized as "someone bet me he will still be in power a year from now".

The differing analysis was actually more interesting to me than the wager - his was that Mubarak is resilient, ruthless, has weathered things in the past, and has the military.

My thinking was that things had already progressed beyond the point where he could possibly stay in power... and the military is not so clearly on his side against the people, especially considering he likely won't live much longer.

I thought comparing the two points of view was more interesting than the bet itself.

Sorry, but your friend lived under a rock and had no clue how the events on the ground were unfolding. I would make it a habit to bet the guy from now on.

Mubarak was destined to leave if for one reason: the opposition refused to bite the various baits thrown at them. They refused to get violent, they refused to split into factions, and they refused to disclose any unified position that he could negotiate with, other than "get out".

> Mubarak was destined to leave if for one reason: the opposition refused to bite the various baits thrown at them.

Huh, that's a fascinating analysis, especially the point about refusing to give a position to negotiate with.

Also, I laughed about the betting point.

Sidenote: I live on the road, and my next travel plans after Asia were going to be Egypt, Morocco, Turkey, and Greece... I'm thinking those don't look as appealing as when I set them in late 2009...

Here's a better alternate plan for you:

Turkey, Greece, Italy, France, Spain, Morocco.

They're all fine as long as you use common sense.

To elaborate:

Start on the south coast in the east, make your way across Antalya, go up to Urfa, where everything is between 2000 and 17,000 years old. Go to Lake Van and Mount Nimrut, watch out for the heads. Do Capadocia (fairy chimneys) and look out for the old christian hideout caves where it was first preached and used to hide from the romans. Head across to Ankara to see the Ataturk mauseleum then down to Konya. Onwards to Bodrum, up through Ephesus, Troy and get the boat from Bursa to Istanbul. Spend a few days in Istanbul and take the train or bus to Thessaloniki.

From Thessaloniki go to Volos then on to Athens. From Port Piraeus you can go on to Crete after which you can head back to Athens then on to Patra to try some wine. From Patra get a ferry to Ancona in Italy.

From Ancona go on to Rome, then up to Florence. Don't forget the galleries. From there on to Milan and Turin. Here you can go on to Cannes, Monaco (if you fancy but it is expensive) and Nice. From Nice head west to Cerbere to connect on to Barcelona.

After some time in Barcelona, head to Madrid and if you fancy it on to the Douro valley in Portugal, then Lisbon and over towards Cadiz. If you don't fancy Portugal and want to save it for when you're back from Morocco then you can go from Madrid down to Cadiz via Seville. If you time this right you should get there for the Fiesta de Savilla. Go on to Cordoba and do some Flamenco then on to Tarifa to get the ferry to Tangiers.

From Tangiers take the train to Rabat - if you go overnight get a Couchette, then on to Casablanca (although there's not a great deal there). You can go on to Marrakech from there. Try to stay in the Medina if you can, the Riyads aren't that expensive and are worth it. From there you can head to Fez or the Atlas mountains - there's some waterfalls near Marrakech that are also worth a visit. Then you can head up to Tangiers or down towards West Africa. I'd suggest back up to Tangiers, then do Lisbon, Douro and northern Spain. When you get back to France you should be able to go from there up the west coast through the north and either get a Eurostar or Ferry to the UK (at which point drop me an email and I'll buy you a beer) or you can keep going north and east to Belgium, Holland and beyond.

Hope this helps.

Morocco was great; was there touristing it up late last year. Helps to speak French, though. If you do go to Morocco, check out Essaouira on the coast for sure, and maybe try to spend a couple days in Marrakesh to check out the old market area. It is a completely corrupt totalitarian regime, along with former Egypt, though it does seem they keep the visible brutality to a minimum, and I had no problems there. A contagion of unrest spread from Egypt to Morocco would not be completely out of the question, however.

Turkey and Greece should be no problem, they're both quite stable this month... : P

Might I suggest southern Spain, near Grenada and Sevilla? It's a short boat ride from Morocco's northern coastal cities, and truly a wonderful area to visit, with some beautiful arab-influenced architecture surviving from when the Moors ran the place. They serve good tapas in Grenada, often free with your drink order!

If you're going to ever end up in Istanbul, drop me a line through e-mail (the link on my profile has it) and I'll gladly buy you a beer and take you around! :)

Turkey and Greece should be no biggie, both are pretty darn stable.

Three to four days ago was very near the low point (besides the night they fought the mobs). There weren't many people and I kind of feared it would fizz out too because it wasn't clear if most Egyptians bought the propaganda. But then there was the Ghonim interview and Tuesday there was no more doubt.

I thought the conditions were interesting, and they sparked thought. Such as to what extent foreign support is considered "cheating" in this sense; apparently troops is too obvious, funding is OK. ;)

I enjoyed it in its current form.

The journey was more interesting than the destination.

Damn programmers always trying to optimize away the interesting bits ;)

If Mubarak returns to power before the end of the year does your friend win?

> If Mubarak returns to power before the end of the year does your friend win?

If he's got the title of President, there's no foreign troops stabilizing (that's the only way I could see Mubarak keeping power - if the U.N. sent peacekeepers or something), and he's in Egypt, then I suppose so yes.

You may have to hold on for the dinner treat til Dec'12 then.

Mubarak is not resigning. Looks like your friend is still in this game.

Looks like you might have spoken too soon: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2203697

The idea of 'Hosni Mubarak' might still be in power. It'll just be named 'Omar Suleiman'.

So what happens if he keeps the title but relinquishes executive power, as the 2:05 post indicates? Tie?

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