With sites like http://overhear.us the phrase "they can't all be winners" springs to mind; however, I have a hard time believing they were more promising than the hundreds who got turned down. I'm not sold on the prophetic ability of YC.
I got interviewed for this summer. While I am disappointed that we were not selected, I understand that there's a bunch of great people, with great ideas, and only a handful of spots. When you're trying to pick the best 19 apples from a barrel of 420 apples, you're bound to throw out a couple good ones.
My question is, how many people that were not YC selected went on their own, and now are successful? same question but with people that were interviewed and not selected?
I have no idea if we will be successful or not.. I know for certain though that we will keep trying until we are (which may be never). My co-founder is my cousin, so he isnt exactly going away :) He's keeps my fire lit and I do the same for him.
My biggest fear is not being able to move as fast as if we were in the YC program. I think YC is a gentle push to release as soon as possible, which is important. I suspect many of the early-stage teams who are rejected do not actually execute their idea and release. (Hence the apparent absence of successful "rejected" groups maybe?)
The absense of successful rejected is simply a factor of the YC propaganda engine only talking about those accepted. ITs too early for stories about the ones that got away to be well known-- hell, there aren't any real successes from the program yet (which is also because its new.)
My question is how many of the start-ups selected wouldn't have done anything if they hadn't made the cut? I think most of the non-selectees switch gears and do something else instead, like school.
Relatedly, how many of the people who were selected had success primarily because of their YC link rather than because of impressive technology? Reddit certainly seems to be one of them, and the "big success" so far.
I'd say it's like the restaurant business. There are many cooks out there, but not all can make a nice shop with the right ambience, right furniture, etc.
I agree that they may not have hit on the right idea for their skills yet (overhear.us is fun as hell to use and eats time like nothing else I've ever used, but it doesn't seem to be getting traction, so far), but I have no doubt they will build something great. They may end up going back to the drawing board (maybe even a few times) before doing it...but you'll hear about them again. They're still young...plenty of time to make a few mistakes before hitting on something great.
YC is a very early stage investor. They bet on people more than ideas. I believe betting on Paul and Evan was a well-placed bet, even if Socialmoth and Overhear.us never explode into popularity.
overhear.us is extremely experimental at this point and could change dramatically. we spent 6 weeks and made it on a whim and it has already proved useful as a feedback device internal to YC.
there remain a lot of obvious improvements to be made product, but it is an experiment. right now we are eyeing it and seeing how people are using it, and how we can get them to use it better.
i'd love to talk more about it, but i have a feeling i'm already being pulled in to an online war by responding to this comment.
-paul from overhear.us
i'd love to write up the whole overhear.us story but i don't think this is the place.
also this isn't my normal account