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I agree with the view that we'll see a rapid change when new renewables are cheaper than continued operation of existing fossil fuel plants. However, where is that threshold? We're seeing solar and wind with LCoE as low as $0.03/kWh. How much further do we have to go?

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I don’t think we need to get cheaper, rather that we need to continue to scale up production of PV/wind and batteries. Even with current cost of batteries we can eliminate 100% of coal while saving money; doing so will reduce energy costs enough to eliminate fuel oil, which in turn will reduce the cost enough to eliminate gas.

Batteries, while very efficient, have some pretty harsh scaling problems, and are very expensive for the tail end of availability needs. There are plenty of energy storage options that are comparably inefficient but scale much easier (such as hydrogen storage or thermal storage), but lower energy production costs can mitigate the expense of inefficiency.

I think we're already seeing about as rapid a change as available capital can support. Transition has a great deal of up-front cost, even if it's a money-saver in the long run.

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