Hacker News Reader

Comment by aaronbrethorst | Hacker News Reader

A three year old Boeing 737-800, which does not have any known safety issues. It feels deeply implausible that this airplane would simply crash due to mechanical issues two minutes after taking off from Tehran just hours after Iran retaliated against the United States's assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, but then again there was also an earthquake in Iran just a few hours ago, so I guess maybe these things just happen occasionally? I hope.

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/iran-earthquake-busheh...

View on HN

What I learned is that the stellar decades-long safety record of an airplane can be ruined by a single fuck-up during service - even when servicing another airplane [1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_4590

737-800 have reported problems with engines disintegrating in flight, with two accidents, one of them in 2018 leaving 1 passenger dead and 8 injured.

The CFM56 engines used appeared to have issues with detaching compressor blades.

Since this thread is mostly speculation, might as well go all in:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tectonic_weapon

"Does not have any known safety issues" sounds like bit of a stretch, every airplane models has few safety issues at least. Issues range from faulty windshield wiper motors(I just checked and there is such one for 738), to "may spontaneously explode and kill everyone in and out". The problem is whether the prevalence and/or severity of issues are under control or not.

It could also be bad actors trying to stir the pot.

>A three year old Boeing 737-800, which does not have any known safety issues.

Also, just two days after the latest maintenance check (Jan 6th 2020).

I wonder how often maintenance checks are?

It’s going to be hard to remove the suspicion. The investigation will probably be run by an Iranian authority. I doubt the NTSB will be invited in the current climate. How credible will be its finding? Usually in this case a neutral third party is invited (like France’s BEA). But pretty much all western countries are being threaten by Iran now.

> But pretty much all western countries are being threaten by Iran now.

Are they? If I remember correctly, Iran threatened the US / Trump specifically (more so since Trump threatened to attack cultural sites). Were there any threats to other western countries?

The UK seems to think so:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/british-strike-on-ir...

The UK is desparate for a 'trade deal' with america having voted to completely cut ties with the EU.

I didn't see threats coming from Iran towards the West apart from the ones against the US (and veiled threats to US allies to not join them), care to share sources for threats against other Western countries?

Most of Europe aside from the UK, desperate for a UK-comes-off-worst trade deal, appear to have distanced themselves. Could envisage one of those being able to perform an investigation.

>>but then again there was also an earthquake in Iran just a few hours ago

Noob question, what are the odds they were testing a nuclear weapon, and how would a foreign agency go about finding if they indeed did a test?

Nuclear weapon detonations (particularly when tested underground, which is done mostly to avoid atmospheric contamination) can be identified through seismic arrays. The system is pretty reliable, and beyond the obvious task of distinguishing between natural and human causes, it is even capable of detecting the approximate origin. I remember reading an article about how even civilian arrays were capable of identifying tests in North Korea, and distinguishing between detonations, and the following cavity collapses.

"A three year old Boeing 737-800, which does not have any known safety issues."

That is what we heard after the first 737-Max crash as well. Then came another one and the same line was spewed all over.

Exactly, it’s the safest passenger plane model until it isn’t.

Can’t edit this anymore but just want to update the record that I was wrong. I was being charitable but it was indeed downed by the Iranian government.

This model has been around since 1998. You have undoubtedly flown on a 737-800 many, many times. They are incredibly safe airplanes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incident...

Yes. The 737-800 is a Boeing from a different era. Proper engineering.

But it was built 3 years ago. Does proper engineering prevent future failures if the assembly process becomes flawed at a later time?

For example using cheaper materials, ignoring cracks, not properly training new employees etc.

What does this kind of baseless speculation accomplish?

What is accomplished by downvoting and attacking people for asking questions instead of answering them?

“Just asking questions”

> Does proper engineering prevent future failures

No. Never.

The plane could have had a defect. The parts could have had a defect. Maintenance could have caused damage.

Or, the machine was perfect. It just hit the wrong number of birds at the wrong angle. Or experienced one of countless random errors that can take down a good plane.

(It could also be malice.)

Yeah at this point no one knows anything except the plane crashed.

...stray tools forgotten in the airplane after assembly, metal shavings close to cables... yeah, I read those articles too. However, the fact that the Iranian authorities already concluded that the cause was "engine failure for technical reasons" seems a bit suspicious.

Are stray bullets or missiles considered technical enough?

It’s already been reported that it was accidentally shot down.

Do you have a source?

Reply on news.ycombinator.com