Comment by nexus6mike | Hacker News Reader

Comment by nexus6mike | Hacker News Reader

Short-term demand seems to be shifting to Vietnam. This seems to have enabled a 'wait and see' approach re: China + tariffs. However, I'd question if Vietnam has enough long-term manufacturing capacity [1] [2] [3] to sustain the short-term advantage it seems to be currently enjoying.

Today, China has 16 of the world's 50 busiest ports, including Shenzhen at #3 (all as measured by 2018 TEU volume). [4] However, this is less indicative of capacity than it is of current demand / throughput.

Both countries could benefit from building more deep-water ports. China currently has two Panamax ports, with a third on the way. Vietnam has none and is building its first. The U.S., by comparison, has 42 by my count. [5]

Separately, there's a great Wired documentary on Shenzhen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGJ5cZnoodY.

[1] https://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-vietnam-trade-war-201907...

[2] www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3018403/chinese-manufacturers-returning-home-inefficient-vietnam

[3] https://www.wsj.com/articles/for-manufacturers-in-china-brea...

[4] http://www.worldshipping.org/about-the-industry/global-trade...

[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Panamax_ports

Panamax is simply a much less important standard for China than for the USA because of proximity to the Panama Canal. Generally they can (and do) support larger ships but often with lower draft. Much of their shipping infrastructure is better for modern larger capesize vessels than the US. There's a reason they have something like 7-8 of the top 10 world porta in basically every category and it's not because they are worried about the Panamax standard

This is an excellent point. Certainly, China seems to be managing fine without many Panamax ports

> China currently has two Panamax ports, with a third on the way. Vietnam has none and is building its first. The U.S., by comparison, has 42 by my count. [5]

I'm curious how Panamax or New Panamax berths make ports more economically viable? And whether US ports are more heavily import focused (and thus want a Neopanamax berth available should the need arise) vs. Chinese or Vietnamese ports? The reason I ask is because I spend too much time looking at ports on Google Maps, and to my eye no single N.A. port compares to most Chinese ports in terms of land area (and apparent capacity). [1] Do goods just sit idle in yards at Chinese ports?

Also, it looks like a single user has added ~30 ports to that list for China. [2] I'm not sure what to think of that.

[1] With the exception of Long Beach. Also this is only for container capacity, so I'm not thinking about roll-on/off, bulk and tanker ports.

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_Panamax_p...

A Chinamax ship is larger than a Panamax port. Surely if the standard is named after your country you have many ports large enough to handle them. I imagine the list was(is?) inaccurate.

I know the dry dock list on Wikipedia isn't accurate because it doesn't even include my shipyard!

Vietnam's entire industrial capacity is like that of a single district in Dongguan, and they are very US centric.

One man told me recently that Samsung's factory makes 50% of Vietnam's export value.

Quality and craftsmanship is also a huge differentiation between Vietnamese and Chinese capabilities.

In which direction?

Let's just say that Vietnam has a lot of catching up to do.

Doesn't that just mean that Vietnam is becoming the new China? China started their improvements in somewhat similar circumstances.

Indeed... but it will take some time for it to develop.

28%... http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=2...

28% of GDP is different from 28% of export value...

Thank you, for some reason I had them combined in my head.

Spot on. Sihanoukville is China's Panamax port in the southern region, which gives them access to Jakarta and then west onto Africa. Google about how China has taken over the city as well as the roads/rails they are building through Laos/Cambodia. It is epic destruction.

It is quite easy to move between Vietnam / Laos / Cambodia... I know it because I've personally driven on a motorbike many of the trucker back roads literally cut through the borders.

Vietnam will take a dozen more years to catch up. Hai Phong in the north is a very wealthy city due to all the shipping with China and Samsung, but politics and culture will get in the way for quite some time to come.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com