I don't think we can tell for sure before they start releasing numbers for cloud proper. Both Azure and GCP are problematic in that regard (see the acrobatics that Stratechery was going through while trying to deduce GCP numbers).

That being said, they've been closing the feature gap, and have shown themselves able to pick up large contracts (controversy over JEDI notwitstanding), so the market certainly seems more competitive than a couple of years ago.

As for factoring discounts etc. into cloud numbers, I confess that I don't have a good answer.