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> it seems a bit improbable that a bolide would just so happen to hit the armory. Given that bolide events are rare to begin with, the low chance of hitting a military building is enough to make me skeptical.

Well, isn't the probability of hitting the armory identical to that of hitting anywhere else on the planet?

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Yes, and there's a very big number of things in the "anything else" category, and only very few things in the "armory" category.

On the other hand explosive materials accidents happen where big amounts of explosive materials are stored, and there's few places in the "anything else than armory" category so the event is more likely.

Yes, but the probability of hitting a place that contains many other explosive agents which could cause the same effect is far far lower than hitting anywhere else on the planet.

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