Comment by cdoxsey | Hacker News Reader

Comment by cdoxsey | Hacker News Reader

Here's some

1. Civil war in China

2. A new, significant non iOS/Android OS in mobile

3. Uber/Lyft will gradually shift to a unionized, national taxi company

4. Nothing significant will be done about Climate Change, and it won't matter. Some new environmental issue will be talked about instead.

5. A third political party will become significant in the US

6. There will be a major Christian missionary movement from the global south to Europe

7. VR gaming won't be much of a thing (ie like 3d movies)

8. Tesla will go out of business

9. Commonplace purchases will increasingly be made with point-of-sale loans and/or monthly leases. This will increase economic disparity (rich people will buy stuff / get better rates, poor people will rent things / can never get ahead)

10. Software development will still be a relatively specialized, niche field, with most people not knowing much about it. It won't be more "diverse"

11. Health insurance, higher education, housing and tax preparation will all still be crazy complex and expensive in the US

12. You'll finally be able to pump your own gas in New Jersey

13. Most churches will lose their tax exempt status

14. Texas will have more people than California

>9. Commonplace purchases will increasingly be made with point-of-sale loans and/or monthly leases. This will increase economic disparity (rich people will buy stuff / get better rates, poor people will rent things / can never get ahead)

Oh man. I didn't even think about it, but I think you hit the nail on the head with this one. Between more and more online retailers offering "Affirm" monthly payments for everyday items and true ownership of goods being less common with subscription services, your rediction is a natural and scary evolution for everyday purchases.

I seen an ad in my feed on Facebook where you could finance a toothbrush. Like the company was offering their own loan. However I think putting a toothbrush on a credit card you already use and pay off would be normal since more people are cashless, but a separate loan just for a toothbrush sounded insane to me. But maybe that's the future...

One more:

1. The advent of an artificial womb will toss a wrench in the abortion debate

I like this idea. Here’s hoping you’re right!

That'll be so interesting to see. It'll certainly put even more pressure on anti-abortionists to be honest about whether they care about the well-being of humans or whether they care about controlling women...

They'll just insist that the woman pay for the incredibly expensive artificial womb. It's a potentially amazing liberation technology, but only if the health economics are sorted out.

> 12. You'll finally be able to pump your own gas in New Jersey

Some people will, but most will own super-charge electric, service stations will pivot into being food-first. Avocado and toast will be available on the freeways along R66.

Interesting prediction about Tesla and one that I share because I think we will see leaps in progress by most traditional automotive companies as they finally catch up. Tesla could then be acquired, after changing the automotive landscape for good. Mission accomplished.

6. What led you to this belief?

7. I thought the same until I tried the latest gen htc vive pro. Now I predict that half life will be the breakthrough game that makes 2020 the year vr becomes the mainstream, even de facto, platform.

7. Please, PLEASE, PLEEEEAAAAASE be right.

We early millenials (1982-84) were promised both utopia and dystopia and I've yet to see the flying cars so I'll settle for good enough VR.

>>Civil war in China

It takes a lot of hunger to create a civil war. Just saying.

Any rationale for 8 ?

Plausible scenario, with VW, Toyota and Honda taking their head out of ass and go full hog on Electric.

VW already seem to be betting the company on electric, they have been investing vast amounts of money in it.

I think there's a lot of hype around Tesla and that it's not a particularly well run company. Eventually the hype dissipates and fundamental issues show themselves.

I kinda think any other car company could make the cars Tesla does more efficiently.

But then again who knows :).

But if they could, why don't they, then?

I mean, would you willingly put a subpar product to market if you could do better?

I'm all for laziness, ignorance and greed explaining the decision-making of most people and companies (that much isn't even up for debate IMHO, and I include myself very much on average), but when presented with a choice I don't think most people avoid better decisions. In psychological studies, we always seem to try to reach the best outcome based on information available at the time — it's not even 'serious', it's because the human brain like to play, and consequently win, whatever the game / stakes. Like avoiding lava when walking on tiles in the street.

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