It’s crazy that a privately held company holds like a third of the market share.
And personally, I don’t think their software is that good. I find their documentation to be undesirable and their solutions to be strict.
Case in point, the geodatabase (gdb) standard is purposefully meant to obfuscate the data within. No one has ever been able to explain to me why this is, and the standard has been open sourced by now.
Not to mention, the number of times I’ve had ArcMap crash without any helpful information as to why it crashed...
That said, ArcMap is the Excel of GIS. It captured market share (especially government contracts) two or three decades ago and no one has disrupted the desktop GIS platform. On the web front, however, I see companies like MapBox far outpacing anything ESRI is capable of yet.
And to anyone looking to learn GIS: Post GIS, GDAL and any scripting language will make you more powerful than most of the people I know within the field.