High School Fizzle Syndrome – Predicting Future Success
At my high school there were a large number of academic superstars. These were people who routinely placed first in national and international competitions, were class presidents, had perfect GPA's and standardized test scores, were Rhodes Scholars, and went on to gain admission to coveted colleges like Harvard/Yale/Stanford/MIT. The fierce competition was encouraged by teachers and parents alike. The superstar students complied with the demand -- these were highly motivated, extremely hardworking and talented individuals. The consensus was that, as a result of their early impressive achievements, they were destined for great things later in life.
In hindsight, those traits and accomplishments were not a predictor for future success. Looking back at those high school superstars specifically, their careers in the present day range from university fundraiser to eye doctor to management consultant to employee at a large company. All respectable careers for sure. Yet, in no case does it seem like the person benefited from the work they put in during high school to distinguish themselves. In other words, their present-day careers would have been just as achievable if they had been regular high school students without distinctions.
The message was so clear: If you do this, you get X, where X is defined as some combination of the perfect job, the perfect career, great personal satisfaction, the admiration of your peers, and so on.
Why is this fable of early achievement as a predictor for future success preached so consistently in our society, when there is little evidence to support it?