US manufacturing still tops China’s by nearly 46 percent
boston.com
boston.com
To them robots making Chevy trucks matters just as much to their lives as nerds writing software. As productivity increases continue, demand for noncerebral labor declines as a ratio for demand of cerebral labor. Even if the average tradesperson is better of today than 40 years ago (they have cars with AC, for example) they want their relative standing to increase. They used to be paid, say, half of what the engineer made, now its a fifth. That really, really pisses them off, so they take it out on China.
Combine that with the fact that 40 years ago "mom" stayed home, converting (tax free) raw ingredients into delicious food, as well as watched the children and mended the clothes. Now they buy less healthy instant food and need to find a way to pay for daycare, as well as a second car to get to work, and if they are American, substantially inflated healthcare costs.
I'm not envious of their position.
Well gosh, I worked hard and got into a good uni. I became depressed (for reasons unrelated to my studies) and gave it away for a few years, but now that I have the degree and job I earn about as much as a 4th-year apprentice can down at the mines.
Are you a plumber? You can charge hundreds per hour. Are you a diesel fitter, boilermaker, even a plain welder? Get thee to the Pilbara region, where wages north of $150k await thee.
I wouldn't enjoy being a tradie and I like programming, but the whole argument that I needed to go to university or wind up an impoverished loser tradie turned out to be utter horseshit.
edit: fixed a hilarious negation of my preferences in the final paragraph.
The reasons I prefer IT is that I like working inside, and I prefer not having to use obscenities to get my job done. But I cannot say that I am better off in the salary stakes (or the ability to build a business) than those I knew who went into building trades. Some I know are now running multi-million dollar turnover businesses they have bootstrapped themselves. Compared to those who studied a less applied degree (such as 'business' or 'arts') are way behind those who did an apprenticeship and worked hard.
I guess what I'm trying to say is that tradesmen != manufacturing plant worker.
I have a relative with a manufacturing plant. Their strategy is to try and out-niche the chinese. Their chinese competitors can dump finishing product onto the market cheaper than they can buy the raw materials. Thats' before the value-add of labour is included, with all the attendant taxes and benefits of the labour is paid for as well. The only way they can compete is to develop close relationships and fast turnarounds with their clients and hope like hell that's enough for them to ignore the price discrepancy. It generally depends on the final item being manufactured - anything competing in a fierce marketplace is going to go overseas at some point.
It's the unionised manufacturing sector worker that is getting smashed by low-cost foreign labour. And that is happening across all high-cost labour countries, Australia included.
As for free land - many large plants have been setup in the USA with essentially free land, and essentially free capital. Not all, mind you, and not all in China would be the same. But then business in China has high costs in other areas, such as bribery and corruption.
In the end, it mostly comes down to labour costs (and availability) when you're doing a labour intensive manufacturing process. The other thing that is being lost is even the ability to compete based on knowledge. Running factories takes time, expertise and experience. New factories aren't opening, people aren't learning how to run them. It's the trend that worries me, over the raw numbers.
It still appears (to a non-expert, anyway) that there is a root issue with the Renminbi being pegged below its natural exchange rate to artificially depress their export prices, which seems to be coming close to creating a situation much like that which triggered the Opium Wars when China was known as the 'silver grave' of the world. But then, most have their inbuilt distortions. China - the pegged currency. Europe - the Common Agricultural Policy. USA - Prison labour.
I'm sitting here in Austraia, trying to summon up the will to fire up XCode and instead being dragged away to surf trips with my brother-in-law and all his tradie friends. They all have houses that I once dreamed about owning after I sold my startup to Google. That never happened, so I spent some time researching the trades here.
Many of the trades have apprenticeship programs but are essentially unlicensed. For instance, for some reason you can make loads of money laying tile at the moment. There might be "tiling apprenticeships" but for the most part you can just show up and make $20/hr lifting boxes and cleaning up, and $50/hr putting the tiles down.
Plumbers and electricians are in high demand, especially in the mines. In addition to demand, they have to be licensed, and thus they make more money. There is an apprenticeship period, various certs for residential, commercial, data, hospital, high-energy, marine, etc.
The apprenticeship period may be pushing up the wages of sparkies a bit but there does seem to be a lot of work. I don't think these apprenticeships are artificially limited like the way med school seats in the USA are limited. Plus, you get paid $19-$20/hr as an electrical apprentice, which is $40K a year.
One interesting thing I learned is that sparkies and plumbers can sign up for on-call insurance jobs and charge even more money. During this weekend's floods in Geelong my electrician friend's phone was constantly ringing. I think he got about 8 jobs that he passed over to his partner.
All that said, I get a bit of a bubble feeling over here. Especially for residential building. Who are all these new subdivision houses supposed to be for? The tradesmen building them? I can't imagine a lot of office drones communting from the Bellarine Peninsula to Melbourne. Or even being able to afford the homes in the first place. In other parts of the country, once the mines are all tapped I wonder where the money is going to come from.
The Reserve Bank have decided not to account for the disasters in their inflation settings, but I reckon they will change their mind to prevent a wages breakout.
It's the line workers in factories and people in service jobs that have gotten screwed. It used to be that you could make a steady middle-class income as a factory worker, airline stewardess, or retail clerk. Not so much now. Tradespeople and professionals have done okay because they have marketable skills that accrue to their person, but people whose only assets are owned by their employers haven't done so well.
Compare today with a hundred years ago, and those people had it far worse.
If you truly believe this, can you tell me what good or service the factory worker/retail clerk had back then, but lacks today?
Incidentally, I can only find data going back to 1987, but it suggests little change the number of uninsured since then.
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2187130
The problem is that health insurance isn't continuously divisible. You typically can't buy a policy that will cover only 1970s-era medical treatments. Even if you could, it brings up a host of ethical issues that many doctors wouldn't be comfortable with. Say a kid gets strep throat. Okay, give him penicillin, it's cheap and he gets better quickly. Now say that the doctors don't realize it's strep throat, or do but forget to give him penicillin, or he's got a drug resistant strain. It gets into his kidneys. Suddenly, this is expensive, requiring hospitals and diuretics and possibly dialysis. But it's 100% fixable. Should the doctors let him die because his insurance doesn't pay for modern medical treatments?
This is the problem with basically all academic economics models. They make certain simplifying assumptions to make the math tractable, so that they can draw conclusions about the economy as a whole. And I have no doubt that the economy as a whole is bigger, stronger, and better than it was in the 1970s.
But that glosses over all the individuals that make up the economy, some of whom are decidedly not better off than they were in the 1970s. When someone is involuntarily laid off, they're strictly worse-off than they were beforehand (otherwise, they would've voluntarily quit). The economist would say "They'll get a job in some other sector of the economy, one that's growing where their talents can be more productively employed, and be better off in the long run." And that's absolutely true, but it doesn't make things any better for that person right now when they need to put food on the table.
Anything that requires technology/manufacturing has a sort of cliff, where you can use the current technology (or perhaps one generation back), or you can use very primitive treatments, but not much in between. You could dig through the history of technological advances for some particular device, and make the rational decision that Generation 3 of the device is the optimal one for you on the price/benefit curve. But if we're on Generation 9 currently, you simply can't use Generation 3 machines, sorry, because nobody makes them and no hospital/doctor still uses them, and the FDA might not even allow their use anymore; you use a recent one, or none at all.
Some drugs have a not-really-available effect as well. I might actually be happy with penicillin as my antibiotic of choice... if it had 1970s levels of efficacy. Unfortunately, resistance to penicillin has greatly increased, so "1970s penicillin that works like it was the 1970s" just isn't a product you can buy anymore.
Somewhat of interest to me, because if it were possible to buy 1970s-era health insurance that worked like it was the 1970s, I might actually do it, with a few a-la-carte exceptions. I've read some of the literature that tries to quantify the effect of new medical technology on health outcomes, and the single biggest one for adults appears to be better vaccinations, so I'd definitely still get a modern vaccination schedule. A second worthwhile one is improved surgery techniques, especially arthroscopic surgeries that reduce the need for traditional open-wound surgeries, and thus also reduce many infection/etc. complications.
But a lot of the increase in expense is stuff I would be willing to opt out of if it were an option: 1) huge increase in heroic last-6-months care; and 2) chronic-condition drugs like Viagra, SSRIs, Ritalin, statins, beta blockers, etc. Not that those have no arguable benefits, but if I had the choice to purchase a health-insurance plan that excluded those categories, that would fit my cost/benefit analysis.
But lets address the question from a different angle. I can't find data going back to 1970, but since 1987, the number of people without insurance has been flat at about 15%.
http://www.census.gov/prod/2009pubs/p60-236.pdf
Since the same number of people can afford insurance, but quality has clearly gone up, doesn't that mean insurance is now more affordable?
Though I suppose the composition of that 15% might have changed. Maybe it's more retail clerks, but fewer janitors?
ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.ceseeb2.txt
Historical CPI:
ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt
From 1964-2010, weekly manufacturing wages rose from $102.59 to $765.08/week. "Private service-providing" jobs (which includes retail) went from $98.10 to $606.14. Over that same time period, the CPI rose from an index of 30.9 to to 216.687, an increase of 7x. In real terms, retail wages have fallen by about 12%, manufacturing wages have just barely kept pace with inflation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boskin_Commission
Correcting for this error, retail wages have risen 33% and manufacturing wages have increased about 50%.
http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2187047
My position is basically that the CPI, like all statistics, is fundamentally inaccurate, but it's as likely to be biased high as it is to be biased low. I think you're both proving my point on this. :-)
Anyway, the table I linked to was published last month, so presumably they've already taken the Boskin Commission findings into account and retroactively fixed the earlier numbers.
Does the CPI take into account that a wristwatch today has more power than all IBMs computers in the mid sixties?
Does the CPI take into account that $X that either didn't exist then, or has been so improved that it wouldn't be recognized?
Try to compare it with the M3 money supply, shifted about 18 months ahead and that should give a much better idea of the real means of inflation.
http://www.evolvingexcellence.com/blog/2006/12/american_manu...
I believe there is no 'solution' to their plight. The timeline until singularity is too short for a complete retooling of the economy. However the pace of development at the higher end is fast enough and explosive enough that we can afford to keep on subsidizing the lower classes with bread and circuses until we reach sentient AI, at which point we will be able to provide everyone with robot servants and who knows what else.
Just think about the current web 2.0 economy. If a nineteen year old is able to write a piece of software and execute on a plan that makes him a billionaire in a few years, that's... really quite amazing. Yes yes I know, some people are going to call bubble. Whether or not it's true, I think it's evident that the pace of innovation has sped up more than most people realize. Things like this will continue happening and happen quickly. We're at the beginning of a fantastic time when the pace of wealth creation will increase exponentially, with the internet as the great enabler.
As Ken MacLeod put it "the Rapture for nerds".
When I mentioned the bit about the U.S. continuing to manufacture a lot of stuff, I wasn't just trying to be a pain, as it's actually true; see Dept. of Labor Data on the subject here: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/MANEMP.txt or a post on the subject here: http://blog.american.com/?p=8593 ("Amazingly, if the U.S. manufacturing sector were a separate country, it would be tied with Germany as the world’s third-largest economy."). CNN even points out that "China's manufacturing sector is on the brink of passing that of the United States, according to a report released Monday," (http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/21/news/economy/china_us_manufa...) but that it hasn't yet.
What has happened is that the U.S. manufacturing sector represents a much smaller part of the overall U.S. economy—mostly because the rest of the economy has gotten so big.
When you stop believing in polemics and conventional wisdom and start trying to look at what really is, you'll find a lot of unusual stuff.
As a famous economist said - from a GDP point of view the ideal person is someone undergoing cancer treatment during an expensive divorce
If your stealth bomber uses $100 parts made in the USA or $10 parts from china with the difference going in the CEOs bonus - doesn't make any difference when the taxpayer is billed $1000
http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/prel/pdf/table1p.pdf
Total output: 436,031 Excluding defense: 424,680
Making defense, at least how it's defined in this report, merely 2% of the total output. I'm not sure how much of that 2% is going to the U.S. government as these defense contractors also produce quite a bit for other countries.
That probably doesn't cover the total of it, but I just can't find any substantiation that the government is buying up a significant amount of the manufacturing output. Does someone have a source to help me better understand this?
http://yelnick.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c563953ef01310fc3f3ee...
You'll notice that the output, as a percentage of the overall economy, has remained relatively flat. Jobs, on the other hand, have taken an absolute nose-dive.
What's really happened is that factories in the U.S. have become crazily efficient. Through both technology and significant process improvements.
So we have quite a problem. It's not enough to just make stuff, we need to make it way less efficiently if we're going to solve the blue-collar unemployment problem. I have no idea how we're going to do it.
Producing less for the sack of jobs = Socialism
That's good advice regardless of the subject.
Unfortunately I am limited to the iPhone right now, so can't re-investigate the data myself until later. I have no interest in diminishing the American economy nor in over-valuing the manufacturing sector, but facts are facts and I'm legitimately confused now.
If you open that up, scroll down to the United States, go to the Manufacturing row, and scroll all the way over to the right (2009) you will find $1.78T dollars. If you search for China and do the same, you will find $2.05T. You may also note that China, with its high rate of growth, only first surpassed the US in 2008.
The next highest country after China and the US is Japan with $1.05T.
Edit: Interestingly, the corresponding spreadsheet for "2005 dollars" shows the US at $1.68T and China at $1.48T in 2009. Now I'm even more confused. Shouldn't the difference between 2005 and "current" dollars scale proportionately?
So we must ask. Does the claim made by boston.com include hamburgers?
In $ terms there is also a big gap. The Boston big dig costs $22Bn, while a similar project undertaken by chinese army conscripts is likely to cost 1/100 of that, it doesn't mean that the US industry is 100x bigger or better - just 100x as expensive
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/02/20/politics/main60133... http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/20/business/in-the-new-econom...
I await your apology.
In fact the cbs article says "The report does not recommend that burger-flippers be counted alongside factory workers."
There was a report that discussed definitions and how they affected things like tax breaks. The news articles had fun speculating how it would help labor statistics if they did start counting these as manufacturing jobs. But it was just speculation. Wild speculation.
It's had an effect in what has been since classified as manufacturing. Here's a slide show regarding McDonalds' operations in India.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/27447277/MC-DONALDS
Procurement of raw materials: •Vegetables from Ludhiana (Punjab) •Chicken from Mumbai (Maharashtra) •French fries from USA •Valla Mine fish from New Zealand
PROCESS The food manufacturing process at McDonalds is completely transparent and the whole process is visible to the customers.
Then again, the numbers (that seem to be incorrect, go check the commments in the original) are however about the money it is made from the manufacturing. Then this is even more worrisome for USA, because that would mean that China has been growing steadily at 9-10 per cent each year, while USA makes MORE money from manufacturing but all it does is barely grow, and produce the biggest debt the world has ever seen.
Even if you believe that China's output is now approaching parity with the US (46 percent is nearly equal on the long term graph), is it not reasonable to ask at what point they're going to start buying some of our stuff in return?
Or if they're not going to spend their dollars with us, the least they could do is let their own currency valuation happen in open markets.
They have bought 20% of the US Debt...
Edit: 20% of the US debt owned by foreign countries
Well, there's your problem.
Hint: It's somewhere in the blue part of the pie ;-)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt#Estim...
However, it does underlie a point - tracking the value of shipments by a currency value can easily obscure important facts.
What's a 'constant dollar'? Is that nominal or inflation-adjusted? Over that timespan the two could mean very different things.
But those errors are as likely to be on the upside as on the downside. I never would've guessed as a kid that I'd be able to take a phone with me anywhere, with 4G of storage, and a built-in GPS, and the collected information of humanity at my command, for a day's worth of wages for the phone and an hour per month for the service. The cost of a college education has skyrocketed far more quickly than inflation, but it's also never been easier to learn things yourself through the Internet and then demonstrate to potential employers that you've learned them. Health care is far more expensive in constant dollars than it was a generation ago, but that's largely because for many of the most expensive treatments today, the alternative back then was "Die".
An interesting editorial and comments. I think the Boston Globe is a legit publication, but I was not familiar with Jeff Jacoby. Although he writes well, I became wary at his first reference to the American Enterprise Institute, so I did a little research.
I must admit that my suspicions were confirmed. The sole purpose of the AEI, and similar type organizations on both sides of the political spectrum, is to espouse and promote an ideology. The introduction (Message from the Chairman and President) to their 2010 annual report state, “AFI is showing that liberty, opportunity, and entrepreneurship are not only good economic principles, but moral imperatives.” I have learned to beware whenever anyone claims to know the Truth and talks about “moral imperatives” Such rhetoric has been used to justify the worst atrocities and most hateful acts of terrorism in human history.
I was also unfamiliar with Mark Perry, one of the moral authorities cited by Jacoby. In addition to being a “visiting scholar” at the AEI, Perry is a member of the Board of Directors of the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, an orthodoxy right-wing “think tank” based in Michigan.
According to the Michigan Education Association, "The role of the Mackinac Center is to change public opinion and move public policy toward the political right. The Mackinac Center does not conduct neutral or objective scholarship. Rather, it provides the media and government officials with publications designed to promote and advance its conservative agenda." If any doubt remains about Jacoby’s objectivity or the reliability of his sources, a visit to the AEI website reveals their Board of Directors includes none other than The Honorable Richard B. Cheney.
Based on what little I was able learn, Jacoby, a rightwing taking head who was recruited by the Globe to add balance (or the appearance of balance) to their otherwise liberal editorial page, would feel at home in the company of the former VP. In fairness to Jacoby, he is neither a journalist nor a social scientist. His writes editorials that express a point of view. His job does on included conducting scientific research with the intent of objectively depicting reality.
In other words, consider the source. There's nothing more that the captains of industry would like to peddle more than American manufacturing is great. The real story is the jobs have been sent over seas and the executive pay has been increased at the top for efficiency.