Where's the love? Very critical slashdot comments on PG and YC newsweek article: "... what an arrogant twat."
slashdot.org
slashdot.org
He's just jealous/jadded/overly-arrogant.
Safely ignore him :)
Ian Clarke invented freenet... the most successful peer-to-peer privacy network.
And whether his businesses have been successful or not (I don't know, but I know you don't) he's been more successful than the members of this community. He has far more users than reddit, for instance.
Its amazing that every disagreement or criticism of YC is met with the "you're a failure" or "you're jealous" or "you're bitter" response.
Never a response on the point.
This is what has me increasingly believing that YC is a cult of personality-- its adherents don't make arguments, they repreat mantra. Their motivation is not intellectual honesty-- but defense of their idol.
Please, prove me wrong!
These are the classic comebacks of kids. Is this community made up of college students? Is that the problem?
My impression is that there are lots of insecure people who are way overreacting to that comment. He took the sentence "we think the deal we offer is great for the startup companies" and made a geeky joke out of it.
http://news.ycombinator.com/comments?id=21791
It's still hard to tell tone of voice over the Internet, but it sounds like he was serious about the IQ test part.
http://news.ycombinator.com/comments?id=21967
I've had the same reaction as boris when reading the original quote. But what he was talking about was the case where someone turns them down because of the valuation. And I can see Paul's point there, actually.
A 50% discount rate would lead to significantly larger average valuations @ 5% equity ($15k invested): $450,000 after first year; $675,000 at second year; $1 million at third year.
Since any later financing would dilute their stake, the expected post-money valuations should be even larger.
Let me ask you this- - you're buying a car. You're going to use this car to deliver papers and make some money delivering pizza on the side. You're going to build a little business here that's worth 10 times the value of the car after a year or two.
Do you go to the bank who gives you %100 of the purchase price of the car in exchange for %9 interest each year? Or do you go to the local loan shark who charges you ("to stay competitive, of course") %30-%40 of the value of the loan, plus-- if you decide to sell the car-- 4 times the value of the loan at liquidation?
YC says you go to the loan shark and pay %400 for your money.
Slashdot "Trolls" say "that's way too much"... and you think they are engaging in bad math?!?!
Your analogy doesn't work; YC is buying equity just like anyone else. They're getting it cheap because they're paying for a couple undergrads to work for the summer -- your analogy would work if the bank would only give the loan if you had an established business and promised to work full-time for years.
Since we have the math, there's no reason to make up emotionally charged analogies. YC values these companies at somewhere between $100K ($10K for 10%) and $1.5 million ($15K for 1%). They do some legal work, and offer lots of advice and connections. Obviously, this isn't a good deal for everyone (given the industry I'm in, for example, I'd probably pass on YC), but if you're having trouble understanding why anyone would accept it, you may just have trouble thinking like a smart, ambitious, well-informed twenty-something.
And judging by the quality of your writing, age is not what sets you apart.
This is not an "emotionally charged" analogy, it is exatly correct. This is probably not apparent because people tend to ignore the cost of VC money.
"And judging by the quality of your writing, age is not what sets you apart."
Seems all you got is insults... great argument technique.
YC doesn't have liquidation preferences, and if it did, the multiple of $20k would be so small its not really relevant in this discussion.
Secondly, what do you propose instead? Most banks will not give bank loans to revenue-less Internet startups, because they have no guarantee of being repaid. Bootstrapping off savings is ideal (it's what I'm doing...), but not every idea is bootstrappable.
However, society brainwashes us all in some way - don't you think?
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OK, let me try to condense 4 years of finance education into few paragraphs, so that I can point out the fundamental errors you're making:
First, you have to understand the capital asset pricing model (CAPM): E(r) = B(Rm + Rf) + Rf
E(r) = Expected return; B = beta = the risk of a firm; Rm = the market risk premium; Rf = Risk free rate
OK, so the capital asset pricing model basically states that the riskier the investment, the higher the return the market will demand. This makes sense. Investing in McDonalds is much safer than investing in Justin.TV, because you're almost guaranteed that McDonalds will be around in 5 years.
This is why VCs demand a 30-40% expected return - because there's a very high risk the companies will fail. This isn't "unfair" - this is how the stock market, and the rest of the financial world, works. When you buy a stock, its price has been shown to correlate to the expected risk. Higher risk stocks earn a higher return, as predicted by the CAPM.
Now, I think you're confusing debt with equity. Of course you could take out $15,000 of debt for 9%, but you're entering into a contract to repay it. If you don't, they get your house, car, etc. This is why the debt isn't as expensive - the bank knows they're getting their money back, one way or another. The bank is using the same CAPM calculation, except with a lower beta.
Finally, if you choose equity, you obviously will want to go with the firm that values you the highest (and gives you the best deal). The argument I was making is that YC already values these startups at a very high level. It's not very often that someone will value 3 months worth of your work for $332,000K [($15K/5%) x (1.5^0.25)].
Right.
- Reddit is a big group of paranoids ;-) rather than just one gun-toting Michigan hick, and
- the government "conspiracy" stories on Reddit are, by and large, true or close to true, whereas on ./ they're complete mis-readings of stories or out-and-out BS. It's a matter of degree, in other words.
pg does not need (nor appreciates) any of us to be his defenders.
If we can help each other out some on this newsgroup (and I am willing to), that is all that is necessary. [gets back to work].