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That is assuming that he only tweets when there already are external signals, which (I hope) we can agree he doesn't.

Timings should be measurable too though.

What I am says is that if he does not tweet, the news will come out anyway. In this case he only changes the timing.

If the news is already out, his tweet doesn't even change the timing.

I understand that, but he also tweets non-news, that still moves the needle.