Comment by paulmd | Hacker News Reader

Comment by paulmd | Hacker News Reader

Parent Full thread

Amazon isn't helping anything by their "just in time" delivery model. If there is a truck going out that will allow 8-hour delivery, they will deprioritize the package for 40 hours and then mail it out on that truck.

In turn, that leaves Fedex and UPS absolutely no margin for error. Package shipping errors happen, especially in the weeks before christmas when volume goes through the roof. But Amazon has wasted all the safety margin so if even one error occurs they blow their delivery window.

It's hard to say whether UPS/Fedex have a problem without looking at their metrics, but Amazon sure isn't helping by pushing everything to the bleeding edge. Anecdotally over the last year or so I have noticed an increase to the point where virtually all (let's say at least 75%) of my "2 day delivery" (or even amazon day/no-rush) packages are being shipped like 11 at night on day before delivery and they just beeline it to me same-day.

The closer companies squeeze just-in-time logistics to the limit, the more they are increasingly reliant on a flawless demand model.

It's the biggest reason I've stopped shopping at Walmart in recent years. I can't rely on being able to go to the store and expect that everything is in stock.

Let's dust off my old binomial probability skills:

Assume Walmart's just-in-time demand model is accurate to the extent that 1% of items in the store were misjudged and are out of stock. Let's say I go in for a shopping trip of 30 items. I'll have a 26% chance of being disappointed that one of the items I needed was out of stock, and I'll have to go somewhere else now.

Those are completely made up numbers, but it demonstrates how a seemingly small error can be a big inconvenience for someone.

Fedex has their own margin of error.

If they can't deliver it within their margin, they shouldn't claim they can.

FedEx ground does not have a guaranteed delivery time.

which is why it's insane that it was ever an option for people selling under the prime label. If it's ground, FedEx manages to take the longest possible time they can, even if it's only going a few miles.

I had faster delivery of a pallet on FedEx Freight than I've ever seen from FedEx Ground. Ground is my least favorite (but Amazon doesn't do their own deliveries here).

Reply on news.ycombinator.com