Considering an impending recession, it just makes sense he would dump these now.
Considering an impending recession, it just makes sense he would dump these now.
Certainly in raw numbers the market is in territory that is, while not unprecedented, associated with a couple previous rather significant collapses. It's safe to say a recession will happen but difficult to say exactly when.
For the past few years many macro indicators (Shiller PE, Market Cap to GDP, etc...) have signaled that returns will not be in line with the recent uptrend. This doesn't mean there will be a crash, it could also signal an extended period of reduced returns.
The country is incredibly divided. About half the country thinks the country is going to shit anytime their party isn't leading. The country usually does go to shit when leadership is divided. And the economy has almost always gone to shit when the yield curve inverts. Combine that with the fact that inequality is at an all time high and a lot of people WANT to see asset prices go to shit, a lot of people want to see this administration go to shit, and you've got a recipe for people predicting and cheerleading recession.
I'm young, so I can hardly speak of 2007 at all, but I think this is a unique circumstance in the amount of people that seem to WANT a recession. Would love to hear from someone older and wiser if this aspect is normal.
Will there be a recession? Yeah. When, is the trick, it could be tomorrow or 10+ years from now. That recession will also be followed by a boom. Such is life. That we have not had one recently is a bit unusual but not unprecedented. You could even argue the the world is already in the 'coming' recession, minus the US.
I would posit people wanting a recession is just a form of jealously and resentment. Normal? Not in my experience. But then I may have just not noticed. I remember the gas lines of the 70s. No one really wants that just to feel smug, do they?