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Comment by georgewsinger | Hacker News Reader

Yep -- a classic "Expected Value is not the only thing that matters, but also one's Risk of Ruin" situation.

The counter-argument is this: do we still overestimate our true risk of ruin when it comes to asking sensitive questions? Are we actually going to get fired (or whatever horrendous thing) for not asking that question? I bet the answer is that we still overrate our true probability of ruin when it comes to these things.

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> Are we actually going to get fired (or whatever horrendous thing) for not asking that question?

What's worse than being fired is to be stuck on a job where the environment/culture has gone bad. Not everyone has the economic and social mobility to change jobs on the fly.

Or where you're effectively in a dead end job because that incident with HR causes you to get passed up for any promotions or lateral shifts.

the true risk of any given question is a nebulous thing depending on many unknowns and your very specifc circumstances, and it varies from day to day. Working it out is a cognitive load that doesn't seem to be worth the effort. Plus you don't even get much for braving this danger, on average.

From the organization's perspective, though, this is a cancerous growth that kills your employees' motivation and innovation and foments a culture of distrust, siloing and paranoia. Too bad there's no easy way to align the incentives there, since the corps are hella scared of being on the wrong side of political winds, too.

It is much safer to overestimate risk than underestimate it!

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