The best plan is to prepare, like Yang and others are saying: https://www.yang2020.com/policies/trucking-czar/
So we can soften the blow.
The government should massively incentivize:
- solar farms
- wind turbines
- battery storage deployments
- residential solar w/ batteries and grid-down operation (most grid-tied virtual battery solar stops working completely in a power outage)
- achieve fusion power net output
- elderly and disabled caregivers
- offer an option to teach and mentor people the fundamentals of running a successful small business (expanding SBA/SCORE)
- give people a chance to showcase, see and try out different industries
- setup a factory incubator to allow bootstrapping and designing efficient, streamlined operations for quality products made in the US at globally-competitive prices.
Investing in people and infrastructure brings lots of indirect returns. Do everything possible to help people to succeed and have a future.
A paying job is better than no job. And there is such a thing as minimum wage. And no reason to assume it'll necessarily be a pay cut. EDIT: And according to another comment further down this thread, trucker jobs don't even pay all that well.
> move to a new state where the job is.
Because that's worse than being away from home/family for long periods of time? I don't understand this logic.
Why? Is there something you're missing that requires a lot more workers?
The assumption that people need to be fit into "jobs" is, well, a salaried employment fetish; or the moral assumption that if you don't work a job you don't deserve goods and services.
Now, it's true that there actually is a whole lot of work in setting up and distributing alternative energy devices and infrasturcture. But overall, a lot of human labor is becoming redundant with automation, and there aren't "more jobs than people". Getting people to artificially create businesses as an alternative to salaried employment is also no solution.
PS - "At globally-competitive prices" = "Make workers compete with sweatshop pseudo-slave-labor in other countries, thus ensuring their own poverty and overwork."
I suspect that most people would.
Obviously 1,000,000 is _too much_, but conversely whatever the current rate is, is probably too low.
It helps that I have the benefit of hindsight having only started my career in IT at 27, and done all sorts of other stuff before then, none of which had any long term prospects, nor did it pay $1MM/year.
What is basically happening is the trucking companies are living with a shortage of drivers, and waiting for self-driving to arrive.
While there is this big push to legalize drugs like marijuana it does not negate federal and state rules against its use legal or not and certain occupations.
The job pays like shit. You have to pay $2-5k for classes to get a CDL or get locked in with a company that trains you and you pay back at their variable rates of interest... oh and they "lose payments" often along with charging you high late fees.
They take anyone with a heartbeat. It's the ultimate form of equality. If you're dumb enough or desperate enough, they'll take you no matter your gender, race or self identifying whatever.
The job pays like crap, you're treated like crap and your body goes to shit real fast.
There are regulations, and most of them are pro-trucker, aimed to protect them from abuse by the company. Problem is, a majority of voters have this weird and incredibly stupid fantasy that trucker life equals a cowboy life. Thus, company lobbyists are able to easily manipulate the narrative to the media, public and Congress. Making sure truckers don't get a voice or have a leg to stand on. Most truckers aren't the brightest bulbs in the shed. I had to do it out of desperation from a spat of unemployment. I had a plan and a way out, unlike most of them. What really sucks, most truckers are really good people. They do the job in hopes of putting their families in a better situation. But because the companies run them down and they only get 3-5 days a month of home time, nothing works out as expected. A lot get divorced in their first year or so. Argue? Oh, what's that, there's no loads coming out of butt fuck nowhere Wyoming. Looks like you're stuck there for the week. Btw, you are paid based on miles driven when you have a load. Thus, in that situation, I didn't get a paycheck for the week.
And it's one of those jobs that people need to stay in their lane about. If you were never one, you actually don't know the shit they go through.
So no, it needs more regulation. The kind of regulations that puts a noose around the company's necks.
Quick look, they did change the rules since I quit in 2012. Looks like a 60/70 hour limit in a 7/8 day span.
Though, you're restart is a wonderful 34 hours time-off in... a loud truck stop in the middle of nowhere. Always.
Oh, but you are protected (and I believe the insurance companies help with this too) that if a driver says road conditions are too dangerous, the company can't force them to drive anymore. Doesn't stop them from punishing you afterwards with too little loads.
A good example in the labour market is doctors. While experience may vary, at least in the jurisdiction I live, it is illegal for a doctor to accept more money from me in order to prioritize my care. Instead, the law mandates that patients are prioritized first by need, second by order of contact (i.e. first come, first served). If the doctors are busy, there is no legal priced-based mechanism for me to incentivize directing their services to me, thus there can be a shortage.
I am doubtful that there could be a shortage in the trucking industry. I'm certain if I offered a 30% raise to just about any truck driver, they would jump ship to my operation in a heartbeat. I know of nothing external that would prevent me from doing that. Realistically, I might not be able to pay that much, but that simply means I was never in the market in the first place (as your comment about Tesla alludes to).
It is funny how the term shortage is used differently in the labour market when compared to other markets, like cars. I often wonder if it is because people once heard about doctor shortages, which can legitimately happen (depending on local laws), misinterpreted what was being said, and extended that misinterpretation to all types of labour.
I found the segment: https://www.limitstogrowth.org/articles/2019/11/06/pbs-front...
The more cargo management responsibilities a driver has the later they will get automated. These are also the most senior and well paid drivers. Truck drivers who will be replaced first are going to be the steering wheel holders that drag a dry van from loading dock to loading dock. These are also the most junior and poorly paid drivers.
As automation takes over we'll have fewer people taking entry level trucking jobs (because the jobs won't exist or the pay will be too low) and the industry will automate the harder jobs as the supply of experienced enough drivers slowly drives up and pushed the cost of a driver for those jobs high enough to be worth automating.
I'm sure some people will lose their jobs but I doubt we'll see millions of unemployed truckers and the value of a CDL tank.
These junior and poorly paid drivers are humans who need to eat first of all. If we automate their jobs away we need to come up with a way where that doesn't result in undue hardship.
That said I think you're underestimating how many poorly paid junior truck drivers there are. I don't think there'll be enough cargo management jobs to catch all truck drivers, not by a wide margin. Don't forget that currently the cargo management jobs are already being done by people. It's not like it's a new category of work that didn't exist before.
The amount of job available is going to shrink significantly if trucks get automated. No matter from which angle you look at it that means people are going to need to work less. Which in practice means that people are going to earn less. We need to figure out how to deal with that before it happens. Maybe it resolves itself and that's fine, but assuming it will is playing dangerous games with the food source of people you don't know.