The Fate of Empires (1978) [pdf]

Glubb's theory of the arc of empires is strongly influenced by Toynbee's A Study of History, which was in turn informed by the 20th century zeitgeist of historicism (a belief in recurring patterns of history), initiated by Marx, refuted by Popper, but ultimately going back to Ibn Khaldun's Muqaddimah.

Strauss and Howe's Fourth Turning follows in this tradition.

On the arrogance and hubris of elites ...

    XX The inadequacy of intellect

    Perhaps the most dangerous by-product of the Age of Intellect 
    is the unconscious growth of the idea that the human brain  
    can solve the problems of the world.

On the deterioration of political discourse ...

    XXI Civil dissensions

    Another remarkable and unexpected symptom of national decline 
    is the intensification of internal political hatreds.