Jumping to Conclusions: When People Decide Based on Insufficient Information | Hacker News Reader

Jumping to Conclusions: When People Decide Based on Insufficient Information

effectiviology.com

26 pointsm3nu10 comments

This is a severely shortened and retold list of biases from Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases under a more clickbaity name.

I don't think that's a fair judgement.

The Wikipedia page that you linked to lists 192 very specific types of cognitive bias; even if the information of the article were directly derived from the Wikipedia page, the author still managed to distilled 192 entries down to 7 categories.

In addition, the article also has advice on how to avoid jumping to conclusions, and deal with people who tend to jump to conclusions. Those are clearly not derived from the link you provided.

Edit: typo (conclusion --> conclusions).

I did not mean he took that list, and transformed it. But the result is the same. The categorization offered is pretty arbitrary.

That Wikipedia page is a concise version of lesswrong with more list based instead going into detail.

Adams has a fun take on many cognitive biases in "Loserthink", which takes on 'unproductive ways of thinking'.

https://www.amazon.com/Loserthink-Untrained-Brains-Ruining-A...

My personal favorite:

> Inference-observation confusion. Inference-observation confusion involves mistaking something that you inferred using logic, for something that you observed.

Experiential idiots vs theoretical idiots.

Some people really can pattern match an order of magnitude better than other folks, likewise I know folks who can logic better than Spock but they have huge gaps in creative problem solving. Minds are amazing.

I think we always operate un insufficient information because we are blind to so much. I don't know which neuroscientist philosopher said this, but that we use our cognitive powers to defend the non-cognitive decisions we have already made. We rationalize decisions vs make rational decisions. Same reason we defend an idea even when we know well we shouldn't.

Admittedly, I jumped to conclusions thinking someone finally made the Jump To Conclusions game from Office Space :D

https://youtu.be/sDEL4Ty950Q

If only there was some kind of say, mat, that could guide us.

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